Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:58:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f9d…b574 weather 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$120 (-2%) realized −$127 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate60%21W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$325now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$54
14 days−$56
30 days−$157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$89
world 26% −$13
weather 21% −$43
politics 7% +$7
sports 2% −$13
culture 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -2.5% -11.8% 55% 5% -15.0%
≤30d 35 -2.1% -11.4% 60% 3% -12.5%
≤90d 35 -2.1% -11.4% 60% 3% -12.5%
all 35 -2.1% -11.4% 60% 3% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 3% -12.5%
10% -19.9% 3% -20.9%
15% -27.7% 3% -28.5%
20% -34.7% 3% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$14 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$325
Realized−$127
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses21 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)35 / 42
History coverage28d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 93¢ 98¢ $66 $70 +$4 (+6%)
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 97¢ 100¢ $68 $70 +$2 (+3%)
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 99¢ 100¢ $63 $64 +$1 (+1%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? No 95¢ 96¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+1%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 86¢ 88¢ $25 $25 +$1 (+3%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $2 +$12 +712%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $6 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $63 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $65 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $37 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $60 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $17 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $77 −$19 -24%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $58 −$30 -52%
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? Jun 10 $84 −$11 -12%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 10 $73 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? Jun 09 $74 +$2 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $93 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $62 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 8? Jun 09 $65 +$2 +3%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 08 $86 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $72 +$1 +1%
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw Jun 08 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 7? Jun 07 $38 −$7 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 6? Jun 06 $64 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $81 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 5? Jun 06 $43 −$3 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 5? Jun 05 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 3? Jun 03 $98 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $1,266 −$15 -1%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $2,018 −$86 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY No 95¢ $48 8h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 12h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 15h
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $45 22h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 29h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 40h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 86¢ $25 46h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 99¢ $63 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $65 4d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? BUY Yes 96¢ $37 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? SELL Yes 75¢ $59 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? BUY Yes 97¢ $77 4d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $60 4d
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $100 5d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $17 5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 26¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? SELL Yes 45¢ $24 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? SELL Yes 83¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $58 5d
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? SELL No 85¢ $65 6d
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? SELL No 88¢ $8 6d
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? BUY No 97¢ $84 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 93¢ $66 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 86¢ $71 6d
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary BUY No 97¢ $68 6d
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primar BUY No 99¢ $63 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $324.85 · official $324.85 (match) · 88 history records