Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:39:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f9e…7fd8 crypto 526 markets active 6d ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,638 (-8%) realized −$2,638 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate41%217W / 309L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day38.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$228
14 days−$228
30 days−$228
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4,349
world 0% $0
politics 0% −$17
sports 0% +$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -16.4% -24.3% 54% 42% -31.6%
≤30d 24 -16.4% -24.3% 54% 42% -31.6%
≤90d 526 -11.6% -20.0% 41% 36% -22.1%
all 526 -11.6% -20.0% 41% 36% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.0% 36% -22.1%
10% ← realistic here -27.6% 31% -29.6%
15% -34.6% 26% -36.4%
20% -41.0% 20% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$42 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,638
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses217 / 309
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)526 / 526
History coverage47d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day38.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 526 Trades
no open positions (90 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $63 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $40 −$38 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $42 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $32 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$32 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $73 −$70 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 12 $42 −$38 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $83 +$11 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $41 +$12 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $57 −$54 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $62 +$19 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$48 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $42 −$15 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $37 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $58 −$42 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $37 +$55 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $42 −$10 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 10 $22 −$20 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 10 $12 +$9 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 10 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 10 $31 −$22 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 10 $31 +$13 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 10 $29 −$18 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 10 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 10 $91 −$36 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 10 $115 −$50 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 10 $32 −$28 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 10 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 10 $31 +$20 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 10 $74 +$59 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 10 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 10 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 10 $52 −$18 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 10 $52 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 10 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 10 $27 +$9 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 10 $82 −$8 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 10 $56 −$47 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 10 $131 −$38 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 10 $44 −$43 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 10 $33 +$11 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 10 $36 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 10 $20 +$6 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $38 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $47 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $9 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2180 history records