Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:09:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f9f…0dcd other 243 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$67 (-0%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 229L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$15
14 days−$24
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$35
sports 18% −$17
culture 9% −$8
politics 8% −$5
crypto 7% −$5
economics 6% −$7
world 2% $0
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 76 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 187 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 242 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 229
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)242 / 243
History coverage127d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 242 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $367 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $189 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $559 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $242 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $176 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $482 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 16 $543 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $132 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $114 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $799 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $456 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $256 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $285 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $364 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $108 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $596 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $87 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $904 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 12 $141 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $130 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $419 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $438 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $147 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $143 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $373 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $293 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $114 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $207 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $55 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 09 $158 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $360 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $291 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $119 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $377 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $190 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $56 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $128 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $283 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $366 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $254 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $592 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $147 $0 +0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $363 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $517 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $183 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $527 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 58m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 2h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $51 7h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $51 8h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 10h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 12h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 14h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 15h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $51 16h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $51 17h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 22h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 24h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 26h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 28h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $52 32h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $52 33h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 45h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 47h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $52 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $52 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 3d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 3d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $52 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.91 · official $50.91 (match) · 1308 history records