Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:55:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9fa3…bc92 other 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 724d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$37 (+1%) realized +$43 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate96%52W / 2L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$4
politics 34% +$34
crypto 5% +$1
tech 3% $0
world 2% +$5
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 1 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 3 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 54 +0.9% -8.7% 96% 4% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 4% -8.2%
10% -17.5% 4% -16.9%
15% -25.5% 2% -25.0%
20% -32.8% 2% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.22 per $1 lost it wins $4.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

724d coverage
Net worth$212
Realized+$43
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses52 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)54 / 57
History coverage724d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $130 $130 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? No 100¢ 100¢ $77 $77 −$0 (-0%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? No 82¢ 40¢ $11 $5 −$6 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 17 $56 +$1 +1%
Will MrBeast hit 485 million subscribers by June 30? May 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Apr 08 $51 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 20 Mar 08 $152 $0 +0%
Will GALBOT have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival Gala? Feb 16 $56 −$3 -6%
Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch? Feb 04 $66 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI acquire Chrome by December 31? Jan 08 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31? Dec 29 $40 +$39 +97%
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 5? Dec 07 $26 +$1 +2%
Will Sora be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 14? Nov 16 $45 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 27 $215 +$1 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Oct 08 $25 $0 +1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31? Sep 04 $18 +$4 +25%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times June 6–13? Jun 14 $68 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 7? May 08 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 11–18? Apr 16 $107 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Feb 21-28? Feb 25 $28 $0 +0%
Solana above $240 on February 7? Feb 08 $28 $0 +0%
Will $Trump FDV be less than $5b on Feb 1? Feb 02 $16 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Biden pardon Ross Ulbricht? Jan 21 $36 +$1 +2%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? Jan 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? Jan 05 $10 $0 +3%
MetaMask airdrop in 2024? Jan 05 $17 $0 +2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2024? Jan 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2024? Jan 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump tweet 15-19 times Nov 15-22? Nov 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225-249 times November 8-15? Nov 18 $45 $0 +0%
Will Trump tweet less than 5 times Nov 8-15? Nov 12 $35 $0 +1%
Will a Republican win Arizona Presidential Election? Nov 11 $34 $0 +0%
Swell airdrop in 2024? Nov 09 $33 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 09 $70 $0 +0%
Trump in jail before election day? Nov 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump drop out of presidential race? Nov 06 $50 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by October 31? Nov 02 $20 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times Oct 25 - Nov 1? Oct 29 $32 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 275-299 October 11-18? Oct 20 $52 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 100-124 times? Oct 17 $52 $0 +0%
Trump posts less than 5 times on X? Sep 23 $52 $0 +0%
Trump posts 50-99 times on X? Aug 25 $52 $0 +0%
Will Trump tweet 8 times this week? Aug 23 $52 $0 +0%
Will Trump post 50 or more times this week? Aug 18 $52 $0 +0%
Japan wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? Aug 12 $22 $0 +0%
Will Biden drop out on July 21? Aug 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will $BTC reach 80k in July? Aug 02 $14 $0 +1%
Will Kamala drop out in July? Aug 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce strategic Bitcoin reserve? Aug 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Biden drop out on July 20? Jul 21 $30 $0 +2%
Will Biden drop out on July 19? Jul 20 $181 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? BUY No 100¢ $77 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $11 22h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $130 3d
Will MrBeast hit 485 million subscribers by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $69 44d
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $56 73d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 94d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 20 BUY No 100¢ $152 115d
Will GALBOT have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival Gala? SELL Yes 94¢ $42 124d
Will GALBOT have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival Gala? SELL Yes 94¢ $11 124d
Will GALBOT have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival Gala? BUY Yes 100¢ $56 124d
Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $66 138d
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $40 176d
Will OpenAI acquire Chrome by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $36 177d
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 5? BUY No 98¢ $26 200d
Will Sora be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 14? BUY No 100¢ $45 218d
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $215 243d
Xi Jinping out before October? BUY No 99¢ $25 289d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31? BUY No 80¢ $18 323d
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times June 6–13? BUY No 100¢ $68 373d
Ethereum Up or Down on May 7? BUY Up 98¢ $37 409d
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 11–18? BUY No 100¢ $107 435d
Ethereum all time high by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $26 461d
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Feb 21-28? BUY No 100¢ $28 482d
Solana above $240 on February 7? BUY No 100¢ $28 499d
Will $Trump FDV be less than $5b on Feb 1? BUY No 99¢ $16 512d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by January 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $36 512d
Will Biden pardon Ross Ulbricht? BUY No 98¢ $36 523d
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? BUY No 100¢ $9 536d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2024? BUY No 100¢ $31 536d
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2024? BUY No 100¢ $38 539d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.75 · official $211.75 (match) · 114 history records