trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -2.8% | -12.0% | 60% | 60% | -7.5% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -19.0% | -26.7% | 50% | 50% | -54.2% |
| ≤90d | 7 | -30.6% | -37.2% | 43% | 43% | -58.5% |
| all | 14 | -28.4% | -35.2% | 43% | 36% | -48.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -35.2% | 36% | -48.2% |
| 10% | -41.4% | 29% | -53.1% |
| 15% | -47.1% | 29% | -57.7% |
| 20% | -52.3% | 29% | -61.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | Yes | 60¢ | 81¢ | $15 | $20 | +$5 (+36%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 12¢ | 12¢ | $15 | $15 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 19 | $20 | +$13 | +62% |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 18 | $25 | +$14 | +57% |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 18 | $20 | −$20 | -99% |
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 18 | $15 | +$10 | +67% |
| Spread: Portugal (-1.5) | Jun 17 | $15 | −$15 | -99% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | May 30 | $99 | −$97 | -98% |
| Will Ukraine win on 2026-03-26? | Mar 26 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Feb 28 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-21? | Jan 22 | $50 | +$50 | +100% |
| SK Slavia Praha vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score | Jan 21 | $52 | −$52 | -100% |
| Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Jan 21 | $50 | −$1 | -2% |
| Infinex FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Jan 21 | $52 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-20? | Jan 20 | $56 | −$56 | -100% |
| Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31? | Jan 20 | $49 | +$7 | +15% |