Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9fa7…014f other 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+7%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$29
sports 29% +$6
crypto 8% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -17.3% -25.1% 36% 36% -1.6%
≤30d 11 -17.3% -25.1% 36% 36% -1.6%
≤90d 11 -17.3% -25.1% 36% 36% -1.6%
all 11 -17.3% -25.1% 36% 36% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.1% 36% -1.6%
10% -32.3% 36% -11.0%
15% -38.8% 27% -19.6%
20% -44.8% 27% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$7 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage5d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 75¢ 75¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 48¢ 50¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 $0 -6%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $4 −$3 -65%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$11 +54%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 +$16 +52%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -78%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$27 +131%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$6 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 2m
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $51 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 5h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 5h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 45¢ $10 5h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $10 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $30 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $47 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $10 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $10 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $10 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 100¢ $26 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.20 · official $90.20 (match) · 25 history records