Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:49:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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9F 0x9fad…5a9f sports 261 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 16d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (196 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$253,342 (+61%) realized +$259,298 · open −$5,956
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%111W / 138L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,590per market
Trades / day195.7pace
Fees−$5,867est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$11,948now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$15,374
other 7% −$2,882
world 2% −$2,351
crypto 1% +$4,600
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (196 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 199 -18.1% -25.9% 36% 36% -27.4%
≤30d 249 -1.5% -10.9% 45% 45% -11.9%
≤90d 249 -1.5% -10.9% 45% 45% -11.9%
all 249 -1.5% -10.9% 45% 45% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover195.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 45% -11.9%
10% -19.4% 45% -20.3%
15% ← realistic here -27.2% 43% -28.0%
20% -34.3% 43% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$1,944) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,514 vs −$1,290 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$11,948
Realized+$259,298
Unrealized−$5,956
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses111 / 138
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$5,867
Open positions12
Markets (closed)249 / 261
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$1,590
Trades / day195.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 249 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Boston Red Sox 46¢ 100¢ $2,300 $4,998 +$2,698 (+117%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 76¢ $1,880 $3,060 +$1,180 (+63%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 32¢ $1,350 $975 −$375 (-28%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 49¢ 29¢ $1,470 $870 −$600 (-41%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Tunisia 60¢ 14¢ $3,007 $725 −$2,282 (-76%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 52¢ 26¢ $1,340 $652 −$688 (-51%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 38¢ 16¢ $528 $229 −$298 (-57%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Under 47¢ 20¢ $537 $229 −$309 (-57%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? No 36¢ 2¢ $1,800 $120 −$1,680 (-93%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Athletics 43¢ 1¢ $3,480 $56 −$3,424 (-98%)
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 31¢ 54¢ $19 $34 +$14 (+74%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 39¢ 0¢ $193 $1 −$192 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 87 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $1,070 −$1,049 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 21 $2,328 −$209 -9%
O/U 4.5 Rounds Jun 21 $870 −$672 -77%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $5,178 +$372 +7%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 21 $613 +$426 +70%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 21 $1,312 +$2,332 +178%
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma Jun 21 $1,715 −$1,514 -88%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 21 $1,282 −$1,282 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 21 $137 −$137 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $482 −$478 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $733 +$794 +108%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $2,700 −$2,700 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $2,100 +$2,900 +138%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $448 +$552 +123%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $3,018 +$1,647 +55%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 20 $3,384 −$616 -18%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $1,950 +$325 +17%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 20 $14 −$13 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $2,766 −$1,929 -70%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 20 $1,170 +$1,830 +156%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $2,804 +$2,196 +78%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $600 −$600 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,280 +$1,720 +75%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,740 +$1,260 +72%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $510 +$2,490 +488%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $2,124 +$3,876 +182%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $243 +$2,757 +1135%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks Jun 20 $3 +$5 +170%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $2,130 +$870 +41%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $3,794 +$1,206 +32%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $1,379 −$1,379 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 20 $1,620 −$1,620 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $1,650 +$1,350 +82%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 20 $1,069 −$1,069 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $820 −$820 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $1,564 −$1,562 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $1,188 −$1,170 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,724 −$1,724 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $2,902 −$2,008 -69%
Nottingham Open: Emma Navarro vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 20 $97 −$95 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $430 +$335 +78%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $3,050 +$1,950 +64%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $1,920 +$2,080 +108%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $2,150 +$1,850 +86%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $128 +$115 +90%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 20 $189 +$131 +70%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $2,253 +$2,747 +122%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $2,250 −$2,250 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $37 50m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $490 50m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1,880 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $628 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $2 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $22 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $80 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $88 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $1,470 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 33¢ $1,650 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 29¢ $889 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 30¢ $138 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 28¢ $6 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 28¢ $10 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 27¢ $7 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 58¢ $57 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 58¢ $14 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 58¢ $1,381 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 58¢ $3 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 58¢ $138 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 58¢ $35 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 58¢ $67 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 58¢ $625 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 52¢ $52 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 52¢ $260 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 52¢ $13 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 52¢ $903 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 52¢ $2 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 39¢ $2 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 52¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,947.84 · official $12,675.13 · 3500 history records