Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:35:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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9F 0x9fad…fcc1 weather 932 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 94d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$221 (-1%) realized −$212 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate65%572W / 312L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day33.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$314now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$36
14 days−$81
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 86% −$84
other 6% −$27
sports 5% −$65
world 2% +$9
tech 1% +$34
finance 0% −$18
crypto 0% +$8
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +6.9% -3.3% 70% 42% -10.8%
≤30d 243 -0.6% -10.0% 64% 28% -10.4%
≤90d 794 +0.1% -9.4% 66% 30% -10.6%
all 884 -0.1% -9.6% 65% 31% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 31% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 21% -18.8%
15% -26.2% 16% -26.6%
20% -33.4% 13% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$314
Realized−$212
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses572 / 312
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions37
Markets (closed)884 / 932
History coverage94d ⚠
Avg bet$26
Trades / day33.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 884 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 26? Yes 64¢ 79¢ $52 $63 +$12 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 26? Yes 67¢ 99¢ $40 $59 +$19 (+47%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 26? Yes 70¢ 97¢ $42 $58 +$16 (+38%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? Yes 79¢ 64¢ $32 $26 −$6 (-19%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 26? Yes 92¢ 89¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 95¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+9%)
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 95¢ 88¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 87¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+9%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 86¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 21¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+29%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+67%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-15%)
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? No 83¢ 98¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+17%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 89¢ 36¢ $9 $4 −$5 (-59%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-16%)
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-45%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 26? Yes 23¢ 4¢ $14 $2 −$11 (-82%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+47%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-34%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 22¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-67%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 42¢ 12¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-70%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+159%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $7 +$3 +40%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 26 $49 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 26 $42 +$6 +15%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 25? Jun 26 $141 +$9 +6%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $0 $0 -80%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $0 $0 -75%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 25 $9 −$6 -72%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 24? Jun 25 $146 +$10 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 24? Jun 25 $29 +$4 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 24? Jun 25 $47 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 24? Jun 25 $49 −$48 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 24 $31 −$3 -8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 24? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +50%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 24? Jun 24 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 24 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 24 $322 +$44 +14%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 24 $21 −$8 -38%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AN Jun 24 $5 +$13 +256%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 23? Jun 24 $64 +$7 +11%
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 24 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 23 $99 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 23 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 23 $7 −$7 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 22? Jun 23 $87 +$13 +16%
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $8 +$2 +18%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 23? Jun 23 $2 $0 +13%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $5 +$15 +291%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 22? Jun 22 $3 −$1 -40%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $4 +$6 +150%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $8 +$2 +28%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 22 $9 +$1 +13%
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $10 $0 +3%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 22 $10 $0 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 21? Jun 22 $46 +$4 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 22? Jun 22 $4 −$1 -20%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 22 $17 +$2 +11%
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $10 $0 +2%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 21 $142 +$8 +6%
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 20 $8 +$2 +22%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 19? Jun 20 $178 +$24 +14%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 20 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $8 +$1 +17%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 19? Jun 20 $29 −$26 -89%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $5 +$11 +206%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 19 $24 +$25 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL Yes 65¢ $17 44m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 53¢ $11 48m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 56¢ $8 48m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 70¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 70¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 70¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 59¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 23¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 23¢ $3 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 26? SELL Yes 93¢ $10 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 26? SELL Yes 93¢ $10 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 26? SELL Yes 93¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 26? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 71¢ $7 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 26? SELL Yes 93¢ $16 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL Yes 17¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL Yes 17¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL Yes 17¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL Yes 17¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL Yes 17¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL Yes 17¢ $2 6h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY Yes 13¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 70¢ $42 7h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 99¢ $30 7h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 26? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 26? BUY Yes 92¢ $4 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 26? BUY Yes 92¢ $51 7h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 26? BUY Yes 25¢ $13 7h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 18¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $314.37 · official $324.17 · 3500 history records