trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -15.9% | -23.9% | 0% | 0% | -29.2% |
| ≤30d | 8 | +13.1% | +2.3% | 50% | 12% | -25.3% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +0.5% | -9.0% | 44% | 11% | -25.9% |
| all | 11 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 55% | 9% | -25.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.0% | 9% | -25.7% |
| 10% | -17.7% | 9% | -32.8% |
| 15% | -25.7% | 9% | -39.3% |
| 20% | -33.0% | 9% | -45.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | 82¢ | 81¢ | $75 | $74 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 76¢ | 74¢ | $51 | $49 | −$2 (-3%) |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? | No | 86¢ | 85¢ | $33 | $32 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | Jun 21 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 21 | $84 | −$27 | -32% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 21 | $104 | −$16 | -16% |
| Will France win Eurovision 2026? | Jun 03 | $1 | $0 | +7% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | Jun 03 | $4 | +$7 | +171% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? | Jun 03 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 03 | $1 | $0 | -30% |
| H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? | Jun 03 | $2 | $0 | +5% |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? | May 06 | $2 | −$2 | -99% |
| Zama FDV above $3B one day after launch? | Feb 28 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Zama FDV above $4B one day after launch? | Feb 28 | $1 | $0 | +1% |