Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:14:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9F 0x9fb1…2706 politics 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 48d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$24 (+19%) realized +$26 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$1
sports 31% +$24
politics 13% −$2
world 4% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 +4.4% -5.5% 67% 67% +42.8%
≤90d 5 +11.6% +0.9% 60% 60% +41.4%
all 5 +11.6% +0.9% 60% 60% +41.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.9% 60% +41.4%
10% -8.7% 60% +27.8%
15% -17.5% 60% +15.5%
20% -25.6% 40% +4.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +56% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×6.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.5 per $1 lost it wins $9.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized+$26
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)5 / 14
History coverage48d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Will Éric Zemmour announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? Yes 94¢ 68¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-27%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes 25¢ 13¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-48%)
Will Gérald Darmanin announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? No 91¢ 66¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-27%)
Will Dominique de Villepin announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? No 72¢ 51¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-29%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will Gérald Darmanin announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? Yes 91¢ 34¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-63%)
Will François Hollande announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? Yes 93¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $37 +$25 +68%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $5 +$2 +45%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $1 +$1 +145%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.14 · official $74.14 (match) · 46 history records