Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:46:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9fb2…af7b crypto 196 markets active 0h ago coverage 256d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10,102 (-2%) realized −$10,239 · open +$137
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate85%157W / 27L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,063per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$160est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$6,988now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$410
7 days+$225
14 days+$392
30 days+$369
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$7,073
crypto 30% −$2,037
tech 5% −$11,537
world 3% −$382
other 1% −$274
economics 1% −$1,488
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +3.6% -6.3% 54% 15% -9.0%
≤30d 18 +4.2% -5.7% 61% 17% -8.7%
≤90d 18 +4.2% -5.7% 61% 17% -8.7%
all 184 -2.4% -11.7% 85% 9% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 9% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 3% -20.0%
15% -27.8% 2% -27.7%
20% -34.9% 1% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$1,700) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$895 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$6,988
Realized−$10,239
Unrealized+$137
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses157 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$160
Open positions9
Markets (closed)184 / 196
History coverage256d
Avg bet$2,063
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Karmine Corp 98¢ 100¢ $5,478 $5,589 +$111 (+2%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Karmine Corp 94¢ 96¢ $1,329 $1,352 +$23 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+42%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ $5 $13 +$8 (+162%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-36%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-52%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-41%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 28 $9,202 +$300 +3%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $1,202 +$60 +5%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $3,569 +$422 +12%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $3,501 +$31 +1%
Will G2 Esports win MSI 2026? Jun 28 $2 +$1 +81%
Will Bin Win MSI Finals MVP Jun 28 $6 −$3 -47%
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? Jun 28 $11,098 −$381 -3%
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? Jun 27 $826 −$21 -2%
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? Jun 26 $3,342 −$261 -8%
Will T1 win MSI 2026? Jun 26 $107 +$3 +3%
Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026? Jun 26 $208 −$1 -1%
Will Bilibili Gaming win MSI 2026? Jun 26 $1,165 −$1 -0%
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? Jun 24 $2,879 +$75 +3%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $904 +$167 +18%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 +$6 +6%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $2,382 −$120 -5%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $2,023 +$53 +3%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $493 +$38 +8%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Jan 04 $3,810 −$1,443 -38%
TikTok sale announced in 2025? Dec 23 $13,925 −$11,611 -83%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Dec 23 $150 −$95 -63%
TikTok sale announced by November 30? Dec 01 $4,700 +$75 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 22 $400 +$49 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 9AM ET Nov 17 $3,046 +$36 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Nov 17 $555 −$42 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 8AM ET Nov 17 $2,925 +$32 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Nov 10 $665 +$37 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Nov 10 $1,466 +$98 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 10? Nov 10 $6,632 −$3,388 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 10? Nov 10 $13,700 +$184 +1%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $21,550 +$674 +3%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Nov 09 $600 +$18 +3%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 09 $15,600 +$515 +3%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $14,049 +$463 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 10PM ET Nov 08 $600 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Nov 07 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 10AM ET Nov 07 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 8AM ET Nov 07 $569 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Nov 07 $1,000 +$34 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Nov 07 $500 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Nov 07 $400 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 6? Nov 07 $600 +$19 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 9AM ET Nov 06 $2,000 +$34 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8AM ET Nov 06 $4,500 +$93 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Nov 06 $600 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 7AM ET Nov 06 $1,000 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 5? Nov 06 $334 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 9AM ET Nov 05 $1,926 +$133 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Nov 05 $1,243 +$30 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 7AM ET Nov 05 $2,500 +$37 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 95¢ $100 11m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 95¢ $100 11m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 95¢ $100 12m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 100¢ $2,000 13m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 95¢ $200 15m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 98¢ $1,001 15m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 98¢ $1,001 16m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 97¢ $1,001 17m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 94¢ $100 17m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 96¢ $200 18m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 96¢ $78 18m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 90¢ $100 26m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 94¢ $501 28m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 90¢ $100 28m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 92¢ $129 29m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 90¢ $100 51m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL T1 100¢ $9,502 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $1,262 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 99¢ $300 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 98¢ $200 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 95¢ $100 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 93¢ $100 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 99¢ $500 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 92¢ $501 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 99¢ $1,000 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $3,990 2h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 96¢ $100 2h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 96¢ $100 2h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 96¢ $100 2h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 95¢ $300 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,987.52 · official $6,987.52 (match) · 1487 history records