Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:47:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9fb5…d972 sports 1847 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$750 (-10%) realized −$748 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate65%1353W / 737L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day35.9pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,138
7 days−$1,141
14 days−$1,059
30 days−$1,073
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$71
other 12% −$30
crypto 0% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 392 -72.4% -75.0% 20% 13% -77.5%
≤30d 681 -41.5% -47.0% 44% 32% -41.7%
≤90d 2090 -14.4% -22.6% 65% 44% -22.3%
all 2090 -14.4% -22.6% 65% 44% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.6% 44% -22.3%
10% ← realistic here -30.0% 26% -29.7%
15% -36.8% 18% -36.5%
20% -43.0% 13% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$748
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses1353 / 737
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions6
Markets (closed)2090 / 1847
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day35.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 2090 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Over 69¢ 76¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+11%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Over 91¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Over 40¢ 42¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 47¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
RS Berkane vs. OC Safi: O/U 0.5 Over 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 494 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Washington State vs. Oregon State Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2025-11-13? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
FC Fredericia vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bristol City FC win on 2025-11-04? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Mali win on 2025-12-22? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs. FC Schalke 04 end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
FC Groningen vs. NAC Breda: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will CA Lanús win on 2025-11-03? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
West Ham United FC vs. Queens Park Rangers FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Aarhus GF win on 2025-11-09? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Jazz vs. Grizzlies Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. FC Anyang: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Celtics vs. Trail Blazers Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Pelicans vs. Timberwolves Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 214.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Beşiktaş JK vs. Kayserispor: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bologna win on 2025-10-29? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Jiangxi Open: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Hanyu Guo Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
AFC Ajax vs. FC Volendam: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-11-08? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Pelicans vs. Jazz Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
FC Volendam vs. Sparta Rotterdam: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Damac Saudi Club vs. Al Kholood Saudi Club: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
CD Tolima vs. Atlético Nacional: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Rockets vs. Kings Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Nets vs. 76ers Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Torino FC end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Racing Club win on 2025-10-29? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Hertha BSC win on 2025-12-07? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
AA Argentinos Juniors vs. Barcelona SC: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
FC Utrecht vs. Sparta Rotterdam: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2025-10-26? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Mavericks vs. Nuggets Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bucks vs. Lakers Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Macarthur FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2025-12-30? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Pistons vs. Hornets: O/U 222.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Al Fayha Saudi Club win on 2025-12-25? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Nantes win on 2025-11-02? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Jazz vs. Pacers: O/U 237.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Sporting Kansas City vs. San Diego FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Jiangxi Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Atlas FC vs. Club Puebla: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Karlsruher SC: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Lakers vs. Clippers: O/U 222.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
76ers vs. Pelicans Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score AND Will S BUY 41¢ $3 30m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will Switzerland w BUY 42¢ $3 31m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $3 36m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $3 44m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $3 45m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $3 45m
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $3 47m
RS Berkane vs. OC Safi: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 BUY Over 78¢ $3 13h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $3 13h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 75¢ $2 13h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $3 14h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $3 14h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 54¢ $3 14h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 14h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $3 14h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 87¢ $3 15h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 BUY Under 78¢ $3 17h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 17h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $3 17h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $3 17h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 50¢ $3 18h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $3 18h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $3 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $3 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $3 24h
Will Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 24h
UnionTouargaSports vs. COD Meknès: Both Teams to Score BUY No 83¢ $3 24h
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 24h
Will Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.55 · official $21.55 · 3500 history records