Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:06:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9fb6…cccc politics 32 markets active 23h ago coverage 264d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-2%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate38%12W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 28% $0
world 21% −$14
other 21% $0
tech 12% $0
sports 11% $0
culture 4% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -14.8% -22.9% 67% 0% -23.2%
≤30d 3 -14.8% -22.9% 67% 0% -23.2%
≤90d 3 -14.8% -22.9% 67% 0% -23.2%
all 32 -0.2% -9.7% 38% 3% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 3% -11.4%
10% -18.4% 3% -19.9%
15% -26.3% 0% -27.6%
20% -33.5% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% too few recent
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

264d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses12 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage264d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $30 −$14 -48%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $14 $0 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $47 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 16 $27 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $25 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Oct 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 06 $8 $0 -2%
Will Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic a Oct 06 $6 $0 -1%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 06 $19 $0 -0%
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Oct 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China? Oct 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 04 $1 $0 +31%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 30 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $27 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Sep 28 $27 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 27 $2 $0 +9%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $16 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 21¢ $30 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $15 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $14 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $11 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $11 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $36 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $36 7d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $2 182d
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $25 252d
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $25 253d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 97¢ $25 253d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $25 253d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? SELL No 98¢ $25 253d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? BUY No 98¢ $25 253d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 253d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 253d
Will Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic a SELL No 99¢ $6 253d
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? SELL No 96¢ $19 253d
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? BUY No 96¢ $19 254d
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 SELL Yes 96¢ $20 254d
Will Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic a BUY No 99¢ $6 254d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $5 254d
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 BUY Yes 95¢ $20 254d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China? SELL No 99¢ $20 254d
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 254d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $5 254d
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 254d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 254d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $7 255d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records