Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:14:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9fb7…841c weather 207 markets active 2h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$331 (-6%) realized −$333 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate75%154W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$29
14 days+$53
30 days+$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 84% −$271
world 7% +$10
economics 3% −$8
finance 2% −$2
politics 2% −$109
other 1% +$3
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +6.2% -3.9% 81% 50% -6.9%
≤30d 51 +0.0% -9.5% 86% 24% -7.0%
≤90d 206 -7.4% -16.2% 75% 27% -15.2%
all 206 -7.4% -16.2% 75% 27% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 27% -15.2%
10% -24.3% 7% -23.3%
15% -31.6% 2% -30.8%
20% -38.3% 1% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$15 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized−$333
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses154 / 52
Open positions1
Markets (closed)206 / 207
History coverage111d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 206 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 23? No 96¢ 97¢ $117 $119 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $101 +$14 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $50 +$7 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $88 +$9 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $14 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $70 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $40 +$6 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $69 +$8 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $65 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $58 +$7 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $110 −$52 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $80 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $70 +$17 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$5 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $85 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $80 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $82 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $55 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $24 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $42 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $67 +$5 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $31 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $64 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $61 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 5? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on June 4? Jun 04 $60 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $26 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $10 −$8 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 2? Jun 02 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 2? Jun 02 $14 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on June 1? Jun 02 $15 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 1? Jun 02 $18 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 31? Jun 01 $15 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on May 31? Jun 01 $15 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 29? May 30 $15 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 29? May 30 $13 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 28? May 29 $27 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 27? May 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on May 26? May 27 $35 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 26? May 26 $34 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 25? May 25 $25 +$9 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 24? May 25 $10 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 23? BUY No 96¢ $117 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $115 18h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 22? BUY No 87¢ $101 36h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $57 36h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 21? BUY No 88¢ $50 42h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 21? SELL No 98¢ $97 42h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 88¢ $88 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 85¢ $14 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $70 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $47 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 85¢ $40 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $77 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 89¢ $69 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $69 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $69 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $65 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 88¢ $58 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 47¢ $58 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $80 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $80 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 83¢ $30 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 71¢ $29 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $80 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 72¢ $30 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 80¢ $70 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $70 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $69 7d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 81¢ $20 7d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $85 8d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $80 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.73 · official $118.73 (match) · 467 history records