trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +740.0% | +660.0% | 40% | 40% | +93.2% |
| ≤90d | 13 | +262.5% | +227.9% | 23% | 23% | +53.4% |
| all | 27 | +80.5% | +63.3% | 15% | 11% | +2.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +63.3% | 11% | +2.7% |
| 10% | +47.7% | 11% | -7.2% |
| 15% | +33.4% | 11% | -16.1% |
| 20% | +20.3% | 11% | -24.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | $300 | $154 | −$146 (-49%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | $100 | $150 | +$50 (+50%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | $110 | $82 | −$28 (-25%) |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Yes | 9¢ | 9¢ | $70 | $66 | −$4 (-5%) |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | Yes | 17¢ | 17¢ | $55 | $54 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $110 | $32 | −$78 (-71%) |
| Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 14¢ | 6¢ | $50 | $19 | −$31 (-62%) |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 7¢ | 6¢ | $20 | $16 | −$4 (-21%) |
| Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $50 | $5 | −$45 (-89%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? | Jun 15 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | May 31 | $210 | −$210 | -100% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 | May 29 | $5 | −$5 | -95% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? | May 26 | $20 | +$917 | +4586% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? | May 26 | $10 | +$1,129 | +11290% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee | Apr 26 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | Apr 24 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | Apr 24 | $25 | +$103 | +412% |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? | Apr 21 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 14, 2026? | Apr 14 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil settle at $100–$110 on April 8? | Apr 08 | $17 | −$17 | -100% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Apr 08 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Apr 07 | $50 | −$10 | -20% |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | Mar 15 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m | Mar 06 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Iran strike UAE in March? | Mar 05 | $26 | −$5 | -20% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me | Mar 05 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee | Mar 05 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Iran strike Israel on March 3? | Mar 03 | $20 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Iran strike Qatar in March? | Mar 03 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 3? | Mar 03 | $10 | −$4 | -42% |
| Will Iran strike Kuwait in March? | Mar 03 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Iran strike Bahrain in March? | Mar 03 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Iran strike Iraq in March? | Mar 03 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 3? | Mar 03 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | Mar 03 | $31 | −$15 | -49% |
| Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? | Mar 02 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |