Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:00:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9fb9…cc3f world 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate23%6W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$12
world 25% +$5
other 19% +$3
sports 3% −$6
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.4% -9.2% 20% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 23 -0.5% -10.0% 22% 0% -9.8%
all 26 -5.9% -14.8% 23% 4% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 4% -10.0%
10% -23.0% 4% -18.6%
15% -30.4% 4% -26.5%
20% -37.3% 4% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses6 / 20
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage527d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $39 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $38 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $8 $0 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 26 $129 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $31 +$2 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $124 +$4 +3%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 18 $43 $0 -1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $227 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $135 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $227 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $9 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 01 $5 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $227 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $227 $0 +0%
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Mar 31 $60 −$11 -19%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $191 $0 +0%
Will Mark Few make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F Dec 07 $3 +$2 +60%
Weber State vs. Montana State Feb 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? Jan 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $33 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $36 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $39 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $20 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $16 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $39 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $38 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $38 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $19 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $19 8d
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the SELL No 48¢ $10 52d
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the SELL No 48¢ $83 52d
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the SELL No 48¢ $36 52d
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the BUY No 49¢ $129 52d
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $22 55d
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $12 55d
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 55d
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 56d
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 56d
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 56d
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $48 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.08 · official $33.08 (match) · 74 history records