Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:40:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9F
0x9fba…3adc
weather · 887 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,021 +98%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$317 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized+$317
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses284 / 654
Open positions8
Markets (closed)938 / 887
History coverage54d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day64.6
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 8 History 938 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$33
14 days+$42
30 days+$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 14? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 14? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-93%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-80%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 28? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on May 12? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 12? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on May 18? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 6? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 18? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on May 11? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on May 27? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 25? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 8? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 14? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on May 25? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 12? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 7? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 4? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 4? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 18? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on April 19? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on April 21? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 18? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 20? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 20? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 18? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 18? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on April 19? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 21? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on April 20? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on April 18? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 19? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on April 20? Jun 14 $0 $0 -42%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on April 20? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 18? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 17? Jun 14 $0 $0 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on April 16? Jun 14 $0 $0 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 20? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on April 20? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 20? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on April 20? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 21? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on April 16? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 19? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 20? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 11°C on April 16? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 20? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 21? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 21? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 20? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on April 18? Jun 14 $1 $0 -41%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 16? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -121%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 17? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on April 17? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 18? Jun 14 $1 −$2 -215%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on April 19? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 21? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 18? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 17? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 20? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 17? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on April 20? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 16? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 16? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on April 17? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on April 2 Jun 14 $0 $0 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 18? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 16? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 94% +$368
other 6% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 8m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? SELL No 13¢ $2 48m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 94¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 7¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 50¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? SELL No 51¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 45¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 34¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 157 -39.0% -44.8% 22% 18% -20.4%
≤30d 492 +26.9% +14.8% 28% 25% +7.1%
≤90d 938 +37.2% +24.2% 30% 28% +13.6%
all 938 +37.2% +24.2% 30% 28% +13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover64.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +24.2% 28% +13.6%
10% ← realistic here +12.3% 25% +2.7%
15% +1.4% 23% -7.2%
20% -8.5% 21% -16.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.76 · official $2.76 (match) · 3500 history records