trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +3.9% | -6.0% | 100% | 0% | -6.0% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +3.9% | -6.0% | 100% | 0% | -6.0% |
| ≤90d | 7 | +5.8% | -4.3% | 100% | 14% | -4.3% |
| all | 22 | -0.6% | -10.1% | 91% | 23% | -10.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.1% | 23% | -10.0% |
| 10% | -18.7% | 9% | -18.7% |
| 15% | -26.5% | 0% | -26.5% |
| 20% | -33.7% | 0% | -33.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 24? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | $32 | $36 | +$4 (+11%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 24? | Jun 24 | $30 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on May 23? | May 23 | $29 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 1? | May 04 | $25 | +$4 | +15% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on April 30? | Apr 30 | $25 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on April 1? | Apr 01 | $24 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 30? | Mar 30 | $23 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on March 30? | Mar 30 | $22 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 21? | Mar 21 | $18 | +$4 | +23% |
| 76ers vs. Cavaliers | Mar 21 | $17 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on March 4? | Mar 04 | $49 | −$32 | -65% |
| Spurs vs. Nets | Feb 28 | $47 | +$1 | +2% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET | Feb 22 | $10 | $0 | +3% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET | Feb 22 | $10 | +$2 | +17% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET | Feb 22 | $10 | +$1 | +6% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET | Feb 22 | $10 | +$1 | +12% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET | Feb 22 | $10 | +$3 | +29% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on February 18? | Feb 22 | $12 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C on February 18? | Feb 22 | $13 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on February 1 | Feb 17 | $12 | +$1 | +8% |
| Wizards vs. Cavaliers | Feb 12 | $1,037 | +$20 | +2% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on February 11? | Feb 12 | $11 | $0 | +2% |
| Rainbow FDV above $70M one day after launch? | Jan 26 | $21 | −$21 | -100% |