Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:44:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9fbe…7ba1 crypto 763 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 127d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,116 (-15%) realized −$6,116 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate40%308W / 454L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day22.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,931
7 days−$2,926
14 days−$2,333
30 days−$1,689
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$4,343
world 4% −$1,215
finance 3% −$503
other 2% −$303
sports 1% +$152
tech 0% −$118
politics 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-32.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 211 -22.7% -30.1% 36% 31% -29.5%
≤30d 262 -11.2% -19.7% 47% 39% -18.4%
≤90d 506 -21.9% -29.4% 42% 34% -24.8%
all 762 -25.4% -32.5% 40% 33% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.5% 33% -24.0%
10% ← realistic here -38.9% 25% -31.3%
15% -44.8% 19% -37.9%
20% -50.2% 16% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$32 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,116
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses308 / 454
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)762 / 763
History coverage128d ⚠
Avg bet$52
Trades / day22.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 762 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $115 −$11 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $83 −$26 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $56 −$54 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $130 +$25 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $130 −$58 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $75 +$36 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $113 +$196 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $158 −$152 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $66 −$63 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $38 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $91 +$72 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $54 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $39 +$2 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $90 +$15 +17%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$3 -9%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$8 +42%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$4 +32%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$16 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $115 +$24 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $89 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$12 -52%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $150 +$54 +36%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $175 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records