Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:50:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
9F 0x9fc1…0c67 politics 74 markets active 0h ago coverage 427d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$2,018 (+14%) realized +$2,131 · open −$113
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%21W / 48L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1,065now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$728
7 days−$752
14 days−$752
30 days−$1,223
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 70% +$2,719
sports 19% −$533
other 6% +$71
world 5% −$449
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -77.0% -79.2% 7% 7% -67.2%
≤30d 17 -79.7% -81.6% 6% 6% -76.5%
≤90d 20 +14.1% +3.2% 10% 10% -9.4%
all 69 +20.5% +9.0% 30% 30% +5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.0% 30% +5.7%
10% -1.4% 26% -4.4%
15% -10.9% 23% -13.7%
20% -19.7% 23% -22.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +32% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$299 vs −$91 · ×3.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

427d coverage
Net worth$1,065
Realized+$2,131
Unrealized−$113
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses21 / 48
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions5
Markets (closed)69 / 74
History coverage427d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Over 26¢ 24¢ $529 $478 −$51 (-10%)
Will Julie Gonzales be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $411 $355 −$56 (-14%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 56¢ 56¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Over 5¢ 5¢ $28 $26 −$2 (-8%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $133 +$273 +206%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $15 −$15 -97%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $8 −$8 -97%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 29 $103 −$100 -98%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $204 −$200 -98%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $133 −$130 -98%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Jun 29 $111 −$108 -97%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Jun 29 $51 −$50 -97%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 29 $56 −$54 -97%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 28 $33 −$32 -98%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $118 −$115 -98%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $154 −$150 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 27 $56 −$34 -61%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 27 $24 −$24 -98%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 09 $415 −$403 -97%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 02 $93 −$68 -73%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 24 $1,587 +$1,523 +96%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% o May 24 $310 −$300 -97%
Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by bet May 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Juliana Stratton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois Mar 18 $1,190 +$678 +57%
Will Kate Abughazaleh be the Democratic nominee for IL-09? Mar 17 $579 −$217 -38%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Mar 16 $58 −$16 -28%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 4.5 Mar 11 $274 +$228 +83%
Grizzlies vs. 76ers Mar 11 $37 −$37 -100%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Mar 04 $245 −$245 -100%
Aston Villa FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 04 $138 +$107 +78%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs FURIA fe (BO3) - CCT South America Series #9 Mar 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 04 $65 +$49 +75%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026? Mar 04 $90 −$25 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between Mar 04 $262 +$77 +30%
Will John Cornyn win the first round of the Republican Senate primary Mar 04 $25 +$315 +1259%
Will Ken Paxton come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Mar 04 $45 +$217 +482%
Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between Mar 03 $387 −$387 -100%
Will any candidate win the Texas Republican Senate Primary outright? Mar 03 $60 −$22 -36%
Will a candidate win outright in the Texas Dem Senate Primary? Mar 03 $60 −$26 -43%
Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by 15% or Mar 03 $109 −$6 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 03 $220 −$168 -76%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 03 $100 +$177 +177%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $474 −$474 -100%
Will Aftyn Behn win TN-7 Special Election? Dec 02 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Omar Fateh win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election? Nov 05 $1,614 −$476 -30%
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? Nov 05 $935 +$675 +72%
Will Jay Jones win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election? Nov 05 $257 +$476 +185%
Will Zohran Mamdani win The Bronx in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Ge Nov 02 $1,101 +$229 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 100¢ $406 19m
Will Julie Gonzales be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado? BUY Yes 10¢ $91 51m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $164 52m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 32¢ $133 52m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $29 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $203 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $102 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $275 1h
Will Julie Gonzales be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado? BUY Yes 9¢ $41 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 3¢ $8 2h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 15¢ $103 2h
Will Julie Gonzales be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado? BUY Yes 8¢ $19 4h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $204 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 17¢ $133 5h
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $9 10h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 3¢ $51 10h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 8¢ $56 10h
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $102 10h
Raphinha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 1¢ $5 10h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 10h
Will Julie Gonzales be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado? BUY Yes 7¢ $104 10h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 16¢ $33 27h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $118 38h
Will Julie Gonzales be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado? BUY Yes 10¢ $47 38h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 15¢ $56 47h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 18¢ $97 47h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals SELL Yes 6¢ $22 47h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $56 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $24 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,064.82 · official $1,064.82 (match) · 214 history records