Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:29:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9F 0x9fc2…4fc4 weather 187 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$74 (+1%) realized +$73 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate90%152W / 16L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$538now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$14
14 days+$56
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 73% +$53
other 16% −$11
politics 5% +$14
tech 4% −$7
world 2% +$6
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 140 +5.2% -4.8% 94% 13% -9.2%
≤30d 168 +6.4% -3.8% 90% 14% -8.6%
≤90d 168 +6.4% -3.8% 90% 14% -8.6%
all 168 +6.4% -3.8% 90% 14% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.8% 14% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -13.0% 5% -17.3%
15% -21.4% 2% -25.3%
20% -29.1% 2% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$20 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$538
Realized+$73
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses152 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions19
Markets (closed)168 / 187
History coverage14d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.35B? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 15? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 15? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 15? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the June Meeting? No 98¢ 99¢ $29 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the June Meeting? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+3%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 15? Yes 96¢ 95¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? Yes 98¢ 96¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 15? Yes 96¢ 94¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 98¢ 97¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1.5% and 2%? No 88¢ 87¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 93¢ 82¢ $28 $25 −$3 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $1.9B? Yes 94¢ 91¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 15? Jun 15 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $19 +$1 +5%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June? Jun 15 $31 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? Jun 15 $24 +$2 +7%
Will Ubisoft announce bankruptcy by June 30? Jun 15 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$5 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$7 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $25 +$5 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 15 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 15 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $31 −$24 -78%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? Jun 15 $13 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 15 $23 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 15 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 15 $11 $0 +3%
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 14? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 15 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 14? Jun 15 $30 +$4 +12%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 14 $0 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $23 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $29 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 96¢ $30 0m
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY Yes 96¢ $30 11m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $11 47m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 97¢ $30 48m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 94¢ $30 49m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 97¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 1h
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June? SELL No 93¢ $33 3h
Will Ubisoft announce bankruptcy by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $30 6h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $30 7h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 8h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 99¢ $30 8h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $19 9h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? SELL Yes 66¢ $6 9h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 15? BUY Yes 96¢ $30 10h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? BUY Yes 93¢ $24 14h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 96¢ $30 14h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 15? BUY Yes 96¢ $25 15h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 64¢ $31 15h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $30 15h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 85¢ $30 15h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 80¢ $30 15h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $30 16h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 16h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 17h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 96¢ $30 17h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 17h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 96¢ $30 17h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 96¢ $30 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $538.43 · official $534.21 (match) · 473 history records