Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:50:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9F 0x9fc3…b99b crypto 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+1%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate40%23W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$37
14 days+$61
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% +$8
sports 10% +$17
world 7% −$19
other 6% +$15
politics 4% −$7
economics 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +23.2% +11.5% 64% 64% +15.3%
≤30d 19 +10.8% +0.2% 58% 58% +16.5%
≤90d 58 -17.5% -25.4% 40% 34% -6.7%
all 58 -17.5% -25.4% 40% 34% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 34% -6.7%
10% -32.5% 33% -15.6%
15% -39.0% 29% -23.8%
20% -45.0% 24% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses23 / 35
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage58d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $11 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$11 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$19 +90%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$23 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$8 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$11 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$3 +52%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$7 +44%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$11 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$4 +70%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 25 $2 −$1 -48%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $5 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 20 $1 +$2 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 20 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 06 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 04 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 04 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 04 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 04 $2 +$4 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 04 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 04 $6 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 04 $1 +$4 +392%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 03 $3 +$16 +517%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 01 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on April 30? May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30? May 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump dance today? May 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $670b on April 30? May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $21 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 7d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 52¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 140 history records