Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:33:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9F 0x9fc4…c000 other 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$33 (-0%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate14%14W / 86L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$11
politics 17% −$4
sports 12% −$16
crypto 5% −$1
economics 4% −$1
tech 3% −$1
world 3% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 52 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
all 100 -3.9% -13.1% 14% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 6% -9.7%
10% -21.4% 5% -18.3%
15% -29.0% 2% -26.2%
20% -36.0% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses14 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)100 / 101
History coverage123d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 24 $28 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $180 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $233 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 20 $173 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $152 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $172 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $170 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $147 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $168 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $189 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $147 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $151 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 15 $143 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $302 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $141 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $169 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 13 $721 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $143 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $289 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $172 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $137 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $624 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $143 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $326 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $390 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 08 $146 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $179 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $144 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $309 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $319 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $349 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $178 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 04 $166 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 04 $344 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $180 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $158 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 02 $350 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $205 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 01 $392 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? Apr 01 $187 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Apr 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in March? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Fred Couples win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 01 $142 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 31 $390 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Denny McCarthy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 29 $174 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 29 $211 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $215 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 1h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 16d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $180 24d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $180 41d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $43 64d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $173 65d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $173 66d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $152 66d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $152 67d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $172 67d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $172 67d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $170 67d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $170 67d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $147 67d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $147 67d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $168 68d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $168 68d
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $189 68d
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $189 69d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $147 69d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $147 69d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $151 69d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $151 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $143 70d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $143 70d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $169 70d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $169 70d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $141 71d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $141 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.99 · official $28.99 (match) · 295 history records