Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:32:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
9F 0x9fc4…b91e sports 159 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$367 (+19%) realized +$349 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%56W / 80L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$548now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$180
7 days−$130
14 days+$58
30 days+$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$237
sports 49% +$93
world 2% +$11
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -18.6% -26.4% 33% 33% -36.6%
≤30d 76 +19.7% +8.3% 43% 42% +9.8%
≤90d 136 +14.0% +3.2% 41% 40% +10.9%
all 136 +14.0% +3.2% 41% 40% +10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.2% 40% +10.9%
10% -6.7% 40% +0.3%
15% -15.7% 40% -9.4%
20% -24.0% 35% -18.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$10 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$548
Realized+$349
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses56 / 80
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions23
Markets (closed)136 / 159
History coverage64d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benny Gantz join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30? No 86¢ 99¢ $110 $126 +$16 (+15%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $50 $63 +$13 (+26%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $60 $51 −$9 (-15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $27 $31 +$4 (+14%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-23%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 54¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 76¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+34%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 16¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-37%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 24¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+417%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 6¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-66%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-45%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+36%)
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$24 +473%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Jun 17 $10 +$5 +46%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +43%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Peru end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$26 +250%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Joventut vs. Valencia Jun 14 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 +$9 +172%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$15 +291%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 13 $5 +$3 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +258%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 1h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Terence Atmane 14¢ $1 3h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Terence Atmane 14¢ $1 3h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea BUY Billy Harris 68¢ $10 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 25h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 25h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 25h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 25h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 25h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 27h
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 44¢ $10 27h
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 44¢ $41 27h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $7 47h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 47h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 47h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 47h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 47h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 47h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 47h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 47h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $36 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $548.11 · official $548.30 (match) · 376 history records