Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:10:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9fcc…9ebe crypto 125 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$101 (-4%) realized −$92 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate48%57W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day84.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$176
other 5% +$3
sports 3% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (84 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 -15.7% -23.7% 48% 35% -17.0%
≤30d 120 -15.7% -23.7% 48% 35% -17.0%
≤90d 120 -15.7% -23.7% 48% 35% -17.0%
all 120 -15.7% -23.7% 48% 35% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.7% 35% -17.0%
10% ← realistic here -31.0% 28% -24.9%
15% -37.7% 18% -32.2%
20% -43.8% 12% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$92
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses57 / 63
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)120 / 125
History coverage6d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day84.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 59¢ 46¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-23%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 30¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+38%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 25 $7 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $28 +$12 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $35 +$10 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 23 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $68 +$22 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 23 $32 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $23 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $15 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$15 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 22 $16 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $35 −$15 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 22 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 22 $22 −$7 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $41 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 22 $30 +$4 +14%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 22 $57 +$12 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $16 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$8 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 22 $31 +$11 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 22 $16 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $16 −$10 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 22 $15 −$4 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 22 $23 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$5 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $6 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $12 −$7 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 22 $32 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$8 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$9 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$7 +66%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +21%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score AND Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U BUY 32¢ $30 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $38 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.79 · official $95.87 · 612 history records