Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:16:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
9F 0x9fcc…31a6 crypto 199 markets active 1h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$851 (+1%) realized +$854 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate83%165W / 33L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$441per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$301now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$832
sports 1% −$61
finance 0% −$14
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 198 -4.7% -13.8% 83% 16% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 16% -8.5%
10% -22.1% 7% -17.2%
15% -29.6% 4% -25.2%
20% -36.5% 4% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$801) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$108 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$301
Realized+$854
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses165 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)198 / 199
History coverage176d
Avg bet$441
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Senegal 60¢ 60¢ $303 $301 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Feb 21 $216 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Feb 21 $213 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Feb 21 $209 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Feb 21 $207 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Feb 21 $211 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Feb 21 $202 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Feb 21 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Feb 21 $1 −$1 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Feb 21 $201 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 19 $1,008 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Feb 19 $998 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 19 $980 +$18 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Feb 19 $970 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Feb 19 $947 +$23 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Feb 19 $937 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Feb 19 $900 +$24 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Feb 19 $924 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Feb 19 $934 +$4 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 19 $882 +$18 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Feb 19 $865 +$18 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Feb 19 $853 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Feb 19 $845 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 18 $833 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Feb 18 $816 +$17 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Feb 18 $800 +$16 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Feb 18 $1,782 +$18 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Feb 18 $1,740 +$42 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Feb 18 $1,683 +$57 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Feb 18 $1,498 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Feb 18 $1,648 +$33 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Feb 18 $1,632 +$16 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Feb 18 $1,623 +$8 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Feb 18 $1,585 +$39 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Feb 18 $1,566 +$19 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Feb 18 $1,550 +$16 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Feb 18 $1,534 +$15 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Feb 18 $1,500 +$15 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Feb 18 $1,515 +$19 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Feb 18 $1,448 +$53 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Feb 18 $464 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Feb 18 $300 −$257 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Feb 17 $600 −$59 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Feb 17 $90 −$89 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Feb 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Feb 17 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 17 $100 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Feb 17 $100 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 17 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Feb 17 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Feb 17 $100 +$5 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $4 1h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $303 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $216 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $213 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $211 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $209 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $207 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $101 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $202 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $201 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,008 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $998 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $980 126d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $970 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $947 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $937 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $934 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $924 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $900 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $882 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $865 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $853 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $845 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $833 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $816 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $800 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,782 128d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $300.71 · official $300.71 (match) · 525 history records