Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9F 0x9fcc…684a sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$204 (+16%) realized +$204 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$227
other 29% −$137
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +6.9% -3.3% 75% 75% -3.2%
≤30d 8 +6.9% -3.3% 75% 75% -3.2%
≤90d 8 +6.9% -3.3% 75% 75% -3.2%
all 8 +6.9% -3.3% 75% 75% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 75% -3.2%
10% -12.6% 75% -12.4%
15% -21.0% 50% -20.9%
20% -28.8% 25% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$156 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$204
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $236 −$234 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $101 +$36 +36%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $80 −$79 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $134 +$97 +72%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $146 +$38 +26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $71 +$25 +36%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $211 +$115 +54%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $302 +$92 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records