Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:16:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9F 0x9fd1…b42b crypto 1284 markets active 2h ago coverage 185d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 185d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$251 (-0%) realized −$252 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate86%1103W / 180L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days−$121
14 days−$55
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% +$446
other 21% −$695
sports 2% −$152
politics 1% +$304
world 0% −$241
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -10.9% -19.4% 79% 21% -13.2%
≤30d 133 -2.4% -11.7% 86% 19% -8.5%
≤90d 266 -1.7% -11.1% 90% 10% -8.6%
all 1283 -0.1% -9.6% 86% 25% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 25% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 13% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 7% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$30 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized−$252
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses1103 / 180
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1283 / 1284
History coverage185d ⚠
Avg bet$171
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1283 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Over 91¢ 92¢ $168 $169 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $152 +$16 +11%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $101 +$27 +27%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $118 +$6 +5%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $103 +$15 +15%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $160 −$101 -63%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $127 −$84 -66%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $11 −$10 -87%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $17 +$1 +6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $12 +$1 +8%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $22 +$1 +4%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $19 +$1 +5%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $200 +$1 +0%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $21 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $16 +$1 +8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $11 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 08 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 05 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 05 $64 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11AM ET Jun 05 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 05 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 05 $200 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 05 $69 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 05 $67 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 05 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 05 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 05 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 05 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 05 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 05 $53 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5AM ET Jun 05 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 05 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 05 $111 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4AM ET Jun 05 $222 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 05 $24 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 05 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 05 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 05 $240 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 05 $124 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 05 $243 −$7 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 05 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 05 $201 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 05 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 05 $215 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 05 $225 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5AM ET Jun 04 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 04 $22 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $168 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $128 25h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $128 25h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $24 25h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 78¢ $101 26h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $118 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $103 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 34¢ $60 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 31¢ $43 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 12¢ $1 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $160 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $87 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $11 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $19 6d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 94¢ $17 6d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 99¢ $200 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $12 6d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 0 Switzerland? BUY No 96¢ $22 6d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 6d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $11 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1 7d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $10 7d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.92 · official $168.92 (match) · 3424 history records