Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:45:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9fd3…0c9e other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$67 (-4%) realized −$66 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate66%19W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$2
14 days−$188
30 days−$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$226
world 35% +$54
politics 20% +$80
crypto 3% −$10
sports 2% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +42.2% +28.7% 80% 80% -10.4%
≤30d 14 +14.5% +3.6% 57% 57% -45.8%
≤90d 29 +5.1% -4.9% 66% 55% -14.1%
all 29 +5.1% -4.9% 66% 55% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 55% -14.1%
10% -14.0% 38% -22.3%
15% -22.3% 24% -29.8%
20% -29.9% 21% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$33 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$66
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses19 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage71d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $74 +$9 +12%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $90 +$11 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1 +$2 +194%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $7 +$7 +93%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $14 +$10 +69%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on June 8? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
China PR vs. Thailand: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 10 $10 +$28 +276%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $5 +$3 +54%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Jun 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-03? Jun 07 $201 −$201 -100%
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election? May 06 $58 +$10 +18%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 06 $66 −$15 -22%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 29 $152 +$21 +14%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 29 $230 +$66 +29%
Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15? Apr 27 $88 −$47 -54%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 22 $54 +$19 +35%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? Apr 22 $30 +$12 +38%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap Apr 22 $30 +$1 +4%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-04-17? Apr 18 $30 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $189 +$51 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 11 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 11 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 11 $8 +$2 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $40 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $83 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $24 8h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $30 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 40h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $101 40h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $90 47h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 59¢ $7 8d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 58¢ $7 8d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $7 9d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $5 12d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 46¢ $5 12d
China PR vs. Thailand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $5 13d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? SELL Yes 88¢ $8 13d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 13d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 13d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 15d
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election? SELL Yes 81¢ $69 46d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 38¢ $51 46d
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 81¢ $201 52d
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? SELL No 99¢ $173 52d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? SELL No 100¢ $153 52d
Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15? SELL No 2¢ $3 55d
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election? BUY Yes 73¢ $38 56d
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? BUY No 93¢ $100 56d
Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15? SELL No 30¢ $38 56d
Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15? BUY No 32¢ $18 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.40 · official $79.40 (match) · 78 history records