Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:16:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9F 0x9fd3…9610 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$241 (+8%) realized −$224 · open +$465
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$1,291now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$189
7 days−$197
14 days−$197
30 days−$197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$412
other 32% +$430
crypto 3% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-40.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -2.0% -11.4% 50% 25% -19.2%
≤30d 4 -2.0% -11.4% 50% 25% -19.2%
≤90d 6 -34.7% -40.9% 33% 17% -27.9%
all 6 -34.7% -40.9% 33% 17% -27.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.9% 17% -27.9%
10% -46.6% 17% -34.8%
15% -51.7% 17% -41.1%
20% -56.5% 0% -46.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$116 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$1,291
Realized−$224
Unrealized+$465
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions10
Markets (closed)6 / 16
History coverage87d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 6¢ 15¢ $252 $600 +$348 (+138%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $55 $171 +$116 (+210%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $100 $127 +$27 (+27%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $129 $124 −$5 (-4%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-19%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $37 −$13 (-26%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+17%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $10 $3 −$6 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $101 +$40 +40%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $805 −$232 -29%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $900 +$3 +0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $41 −$8 -19%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 29 $112 −$110 -98%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 29 $116 −$113 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $141 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 56¢ $574 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 77¢ $805 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $101 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 100¢ $900 12h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $33 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $99 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 8d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $41 9d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $31 9d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 9d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 9d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 9d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 9d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 9d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 9d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 48d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 33¢ $112 52d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 11¢ $116 52d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 7¢ $240 52d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,291.07 · official $1,291.67 (match) · 106 history records