Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:01:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9fd4…ea63 crypto 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$118 (-9%) realized −$118 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate38%12W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day18.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$356
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-44.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -38.3% -44.2% 38% 34% -36.4%
≤30d 32 -38.3% -44.2% 38% 34% -36.4%
≤90d 32 -38.3% -44.2% 38% 34% -36.4%
all 32 -38.3% -44.2% 38% 34% -36.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.2% 34% -36.4%
10% -49.5% 31% -42.5%
15% -54.4% 19% -48.0%
20% -58.9% 12% -53.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$26 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$118
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses12 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage5d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $67 −$65 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $128 −$100 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $126 +$14 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $104 +$40 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $123 +$28 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $46 +$14 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$25 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$9 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$10 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$10 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$11 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $54 −$8 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $140 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $144 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $139 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $104 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records