Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:25:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9fd4…dd63 crypto 103 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$289 (-11%) realized −$286 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate42%42W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day32.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$237now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$342
sports 19% +$93
crypto 15% −$82
world 1% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-33.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 -26.0% -33.1% 42% 35% -23.1%
≤30d 101 -26.0% -33.1% 42% 35% -23.1%
≤90d 101 -26.0% -33.1% 42% 35% -23.1%
all 101 -26.0% -33.1% 42% 35% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.1% 35% -23.1%
10% ← realistic here -39.5% 22% -30.5%
15% -45.3% 18% -37.2%
20% -50.7% 13% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$16 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$237
Realized−$286
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses42 / 59
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)101 / 103
History coverage6d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day32.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $215 +$27 +12%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $44 −$2 -5%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 +$24 +67%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $327 −$301 -92%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $23 −$14 -61%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $187 +$52 +28%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $36 −$16 -44%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $21 −$16 -78%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $186 +$41 +22%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$47 +46%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -99%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 +$91 +223%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 +$84 +207%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$7 -71%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $23 +$69 +297%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $71 −$54 -76%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $50 +$45 +90%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -83%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $27 −$11 -42%
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 14 $20 $0 -1%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$9 +88%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +13%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$10 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $41 5m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $203 5m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $242 11m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 52m
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 53m
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 54m
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $186 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $9 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 4h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 5h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 31¢ $30 5h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $15 5h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 6h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $14 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $35 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $26 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $9 11h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $9 11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 12h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $23 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $86 22h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 22h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 23h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 23h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $237.34 · official $243.41 · 272 history records