Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:15:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9fd7…b157 sports 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$121 (-23%) realized −$131 · open +$10
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%8W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$61
other 15% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -4.3% -13.4% 25% 25% -35.7%
≤30d 32 -4.3% -13.4% 25% 25% -35.7%
≤90d 32 -4.3% -13.4% 25% 25% -35.7%
all 32 -4.3% -13.4% 25% 25% -35.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 25% -35.7%
10% -21.7% 25% -41.9%
15% -29.2% 25% -47.5%
20% -36.2% 25% -52.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -58% → late +49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$16 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$131
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses8 / 24
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage4d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Over 41¢ 42¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Over 38¢ 76¢ $10 $20 +$10 (+99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 −$4 -76%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$11 -53%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$45 +874%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 +$15 +146%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 +$11 +105%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 +$106 +414%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$28 +276%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $23 −$22 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $20 +$19 +93%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $5 +$7 +146%
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 +$7 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $20 2m
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) SELL New Zealand $1 5m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 6m
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 16¢ $5 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $10 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 34¢ $5 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 10¢ $5 19h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 40¢ $10 23h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 23h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 14¢ $5 25h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 25h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire $5 25h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 10¢ $3 26h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $2 26h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 15¢ $3 26h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 11¢ $3 26h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $15 26h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 19¢ $10 28h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 28h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 28h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 28h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 28h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 10¢ $5 28h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan $5 28h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $10 28h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 29h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 29h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 29h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Under $1 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.11 · official $40.11 (match) · 54 history records