Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:27:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

9F 0x9fe0…41a2 other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$33 (+7%) realized +$34 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip

Net edge-4%after slip

Net WR65%break-even

Win rate70%16W / 7L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$18per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit18%portable

Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +65%

net ROI/market (all)+0.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	23	+10.6%	+0.1%	70%	65%	-3.3%
≤30d	23	+10.6%	+0.1%	70%	65%	-3.3%
≤90d	23	+10.6%	+0.1%	70%	65%	-3.3%
all	23	+10.6%	+0.1%	70%	65%	-3.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+0.1%	65%	-3.3%
10%	-9.5%	48%	-12.6%
15%	-18.3%	48%	-21.0%
20%	-26.3%	35%	-28.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

6% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +11% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +2% → late +18% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$14 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.25 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$98

Realized+$34

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)70%

Wins / losses16 / 7

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions5

Markets (closed)23 / 28

History coverage7d

Avg bet$18

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	65¢	65¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	89¢	90¢	$20	$20	+$0 (+1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	84¢	84¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-0%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	61¢	60¢	$19	$18	−$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	54¢	52¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$5	+$1	+20%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$10	+$4	+40%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$10	+$9	+93%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$15	+$20	+134%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$14	+$8	+55%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$15	+$3	+17%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$15	−$15	-100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$20	+$10	+48%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$13	+$1	+10%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 22	$10	−$1	-8%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$30	−$30	-100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$30	+$3	+11%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$30	−$30	-100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$7	+$4	+57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$20	+$14	+70%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$30	+$15	+50%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$20	+$2	+12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$20	+$15	+73%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$10	−$10	-98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	Jun 19	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$10	+$6	+57%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$10	+$11	+105%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	61¢	$19	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	65¢	$10	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	65¢	$20	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	65¢	$45	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	54¢	$10	1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	89¢	$20	1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	84¢	$20	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	65¢	$20	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	83¢	$5	23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	51¢	$10	23h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	71¢	$10	23h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	42¢	$15	23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	52¢	$20	47h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$14	47h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	83¢	$15	47h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	85¢	$15	47h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$13	3d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	SELL Yes	27¢	$9	3d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$10	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$20	3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$30	3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$30	3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	90¢	$30	3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	63¢	$7	4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$20	4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	66¢	$30	4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	47¢	$10	5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$20	5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	57¢	$20	5d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$10	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.06 · official $98.06 (match) · 51 history records