Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:32:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9F 0x9fe2…207b other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,305 (-6%) realized −$2,307 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,661per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$2,002now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,130
7 days−$2,542
14 days−$2,542
30 days−$2,542
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$4,439
sports 13% +$1,899
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +8.6% -1.8% 55% 45% -16.5%
≤30d 11 +8.6% -1.8% 55% 45% -16.5%
≤90d 11 +8.6% -1.8% 55% 45% -16.5%
all 11 +8.6% -1.8% 55% 45% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.8% 45% -16.5%
10% ← realistic here -11.2% 36% -24.5%
15% -19.7% 36% -31.8%
20% -27.6% 27% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,562 vs −$2,383 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$2,002
Realized−$2,307
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage8d
Avg bet$2,661
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $1,500 $1,510 +$10 (+1%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $500 $492 −$8 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $511 −$41 -8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,005 +$214 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,994 +$997 +50%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8,741 −$8,720 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8,017 +$594 +7%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,039 −$3,000 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $3,800 +$1,988 +52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,024 −$115 -6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2,031 +$2,131 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2,003 +$3,450 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $510 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $470 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $511 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,511 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,005 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,994 26h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $41 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $8,741 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $8,611 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $8,017 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $3,039 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $5,788 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $1,909 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 50¢ $2,030 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $4,162 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $2,024 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $2,031 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $5,453 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $8 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $1,995 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 42¢ $672 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 40¢ $128 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 76¢ $2,997 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,001.54 · official $2,001.54 (match) · 27 history records