Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:53:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9F 0x9fe3…341f crypto 81 markets active 2d ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,319 (+3%) realized +$1,319 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate75%61W / 20L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$512per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$205
7 days−$111
14 days−$111
30 days−$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$98
finance 5% −$101
politics 1% +$859
other 1% +$64
world 0% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -1.5% -10.9% 87% 40% -12.8%
≤30d 15 -1.5% -10.9% 87% 40% -12.8%
≤90d 76 -6.4% -15.3% 76% 42% -9.3%
all 81 -4.2% -13.3% 75% 43% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 43% -7.4%
10% -21.6% 27% -16.3%
15% -29.2% 9% -24.4%
20% -36.1% 6% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$214 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,319
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses61 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)81 / 81
History coverage98d
Avg bet$512
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 81 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$26 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $102 +$37 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $252 +$22 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $303 −$300 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $404 +$34 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $301 +$11 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $202 +$29 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $301 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $200 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $255 +$40 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $203 +$52 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $101 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 15 $39 −$38 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 14 $87 −$46 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 14 $65 +$23 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 14 $300 −$296 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 14 $289 +$76 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 14 $200 +$13 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 14 $241 +$35 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 14 $718 −$464 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 14 $400 −$289 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 14 $348 +$14 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 14 $800 +$242 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 14 $200 −$172 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 14 $2,361 +$150 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 14 $600 +$78 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 14 $2,537 +$176 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 14 $400 +$210 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 14 $300 +$80 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 14 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 14 $200 +$135 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 14 $500 +$19 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 14 $1,935 +$163 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 14 $300 +$42 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 13 $1,000 +$279 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 13 $500 +$43 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 13 $200 −$65 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 13 $200 +$32 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 13 $500 +$114 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 13 $1,895 +$106 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 13 $200 +$24 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 13 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 13 $1,809 +$62 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 13 $500 +$108 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 13 $400 −$400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 13 $200 +$49 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Apr 13 $400 +$36 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $127 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $102 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $111 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $274 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $209 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $103 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $125 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $101 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $231 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $305 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 241 history records