Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:18:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9fe3…ca9d sports 179 markets active 2d ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,192 (-10%) realized −$5,192 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate56%100W / 79L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$280per market
Trades / day20.5pace
Fees−$642est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2,002
14 days−$5,224
30 days−$5,662
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$5,026
crypto 4% −$307
world 2% +$16
other 2% −$325
finance 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -22.4% -29.8% 52% 44% -21.7%
≤30d 179 -9.2% -17.8% 56% 49% -20.2%
≤90d 179 -9.2% -17.8% 56% 49% -20.2%
all 179 -9.2% -17.8% 56% 49% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.8% 49% -20.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 38% -27.8%
15% -32.9% 33% -34.8%
20% -39.4% 27% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -6% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$141 vs −$251 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,192
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses100 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$642
Open positions0
Markets (closed)179 / 179
History coverage18d
Avg bet$280
Trades / day20.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 179 Trades
no open positions (48 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +258%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $294 −$290 -99%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $255 −$250 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $206 +$139 +68%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $190 +$16 +8%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $203 −$200 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $302 −$300 -99%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 14 $458 +$443 +97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $207 −$205 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $106 −$100 -94%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $503 +$148 +29%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $306 −$304 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $201 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $38 +$5 +14%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 13 $201 +$17 +8%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 13 $201 −$200 -99%
Dota 2: Sadboys vs Selva Esports (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 13 $611 −$172 -28%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $444 +$169 +38%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $243 +$201 +83%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $201 +$42 +21%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $154 −$153 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 12 $102 +$47 +46%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $700 +$195 +28%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $852 −$314 -37%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $201 +$43 +21%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 173.5 Jun 12 $201 +$28 +14%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 170.5 Jun 12 $14 +$2 +13%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 12 $101 +$42 +42%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $204 −$200 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $203 +$38 +19%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 172.5 Jun 11 $203 −$200 -99%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $302 +$73 +24%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $484 +$182 +38%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $35 −$35 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $30 +$5 +16%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava Jun 11 $19 +$11 +54%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1 $0 +17%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 11 $250 +$12 +5%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $304 −$300 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $203 −$200 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $202 −$200 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $101 −$100 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $201 +$33 +16%
Tucuman: Juan Bautista Torres vs Carlos Maria Zarate Jun 10 $820 +$498 +61%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 10 $101 −$100 -99%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Yellow Submarine (BO1) - The International Euro Jun 10 $201 +$56 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 2d
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 2d
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 59¢ $192 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 3d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 30¢ $255 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $344 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $190 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $203 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $302 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $116 3d
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY BALU 51¢ $23 3d
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY BALU 51¢ $42 3d
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY BALU 51¢ $5 3d
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY BALU 51¢ $10 3d
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY BALU 51¢ $5 3d
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY BALU 51¢ $5 3d
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY BALU 51¢ $10 3d
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY BALU 51¢ $10 3d
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY BALU 51¢ $5 3d
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY BALU 51¢ $5 3d
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY BALU 51¢ $5 3d
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY BALU 51¢ $42 3d
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY BALU 51¢ $16 3d
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY BALU 51¢ $45 3d
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY BALU 50¢ $25 3d
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group A BUY BALU 50¢ $203 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $106 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 443 history records