Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:55:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9ff2…d02b crypto 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,831 (-2%) realized −$760 · open −$1,071
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate95%40W / 2L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,550per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$19,583now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1,947
30 days−$1,435
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$2,066
world 13% −$440
other 0% +$2
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 42 +20.1% +8.7% 95% 5% -11.9%
≤90d 42 +20.1% +8.7% 95% 5% -11.9%
all 42 +20.1% +8.7% 95% 5% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.7% 5% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -1.7% 5% -20.3%
15% -11.2% 2% -28.0%
20% -19.9% 2% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$1,541) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +39% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$990 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$19,583
Realized−$760
Unrealized−$1,071
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses40 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)42 / 50
History coverage24d
Avg bet$1,550
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? No 86¢ 81¢ $10,597 $9,981 −$617 (-6%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 86¢ $9,970 $9,515 −$455 (-5%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $23 $25 +$1 (+6%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+2%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Yes 98¢ 89¢ $23 $20 −$2 (-9%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 81¢ 88¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+39%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $2 +$14 +900%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $1,981 −$1,980 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $1,981 +$19 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $1,981 +$19 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $1,981 +$19 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 09 $1,541 +$14 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 09 $968 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 09 $493 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 09 $1,540 +$15 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 09 $1,539 +$16 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 09 $1,539 +$16 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 09 $1,539 +$16 +1%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $1,541 +$14 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 09 $1,539 +$16 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $1,541 +$14 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 09 $1,539 +$16 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $247 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 09 $1,539 +$16 +1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $29 +$6 +23%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $110 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 09 $1,541 +$14 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 09 $1,541 +$14 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 09 $1,539 +$16 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 09 $1,541 +$14 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 09 $1,541 +$14 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 09 $1,540 +$15 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 09 $1,541 +$14 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 09 $1,540 +$15 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 09 $824 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 09 $1,271 +$13 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 09 $1,486 +$14 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 09 $1,486 +$14 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 09 $1,278 +$13 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 04 $1,981 +$19 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 04 $820 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 04 $971 +$10 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? BUY No 89¢ $180 58m
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? BUY No 89¢ $202 59m
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? BUY No 89¢ $81 1h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? BUY No 89¢ $16 1h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? BUY No 89¢ $11 1h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? BUY No 89¢ $10 1h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? BUY No 88¢ $343 1h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? BUY No 88¢ $73 1h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? BUY No 88¢ $5 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $870 1h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? BUY No 88¢ $68 1h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? BUY No 88¢ $488 1h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? BUY No 88¢ $854 1h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? BUY No 88¢ $26 1h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? BUY No 88¢ $126 1h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? BUY No 89¢ $314 1h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? BUY No 89¢ $499 1h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? BUY No 89¢ $499 1h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? BUY No 90¢ $318 1h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? BUY No 90¢ $582 1h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? BUY No 90¢ $990 1h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? BUY No 83¢ $527 1h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? BUY No 85¢ $783 1h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? BUY No 85¢ $68 1h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? BUY No 85¢ $30 2h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? BUY No 90¢ $915 2h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? BUY No 86¢ $57 2h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? BUY No 80¢ $81 2h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? BUY No 84¢ $852 2h
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 23-29? BUY No 80¢ $800 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19,583.19 · official $19,583.19 (match) · 445 history records