Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:03:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9ff4…d731 sports 189 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,268 (-8%) realized −$4,172 · open −$96
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%82W / 99L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$289per market
Trades / day24.2pace
Fees−$758est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$2,723now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10,739
7 days−$9,977
14 days−$5,487
30 days−$4,898
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$6,838
other 7% +$1,844
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -34.0% -40.3% 31% 29% -67.1%
≤30d 181 +0.7% -8.9% 45% 45% -18.1%
≤90d 181 +0.7% -8.9% 45% 45% -18.1%
all 181 +0.7% -8.9% 45% 45% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 45% -18.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 43% -25.9%
15% -25.6% 38% -33.1%
20% -32.9% 33% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +38% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$230 vs −$242 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$2,723
Realized−$4,172
Unrealized−$96
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses82 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$758
Open positions8
Markets (closed)181 / 189
History coverage28d
Avg bet$289
Trades / day24.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 181 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Power Rangers 60¢ 60¢ $998 $989 −$8 (-1%)
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yellow Submarine 75¢ 100¢ $548 $729 +$181 (+33%)
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier Group B eternal premium 32¢ 57¢ $326 $589 +$264 (+81%)
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Inner Circle Esports 56¢ 82¢ $157 $232 +$76 (+48%)
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage NRG Academy 53¢ 55¢ $97 $101 +$4 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Alpha Dominion Nation 25¢ 100¢ $18 $72 +$54 (+300%)
Spain to win the second half? No 51¢ 52¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner MODUS 45¢ $666 $1 −$665 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: the bug vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $105 −$103 -98%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul Jun 26 $101 −$101 -99%
Valorant: 9z Team vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular S Jun 25 $56 −$55 -98%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 25 $166 +$152 +92%
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $101 +$81 +80%
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $92 +$116 +127%
Counter-Strike: OlyBet SB vs Subtop De France (BO3) - European Pro Lea Jun 25 $110 +$87 +79%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $186 −$185 -99%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $903 −$903 -100%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs MIBR Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $43 +$86 +203%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $442 +$140 +32%
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) Jun 25 $2,581 −$2,555 -99%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 25 $164 −$149 -91%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs illwill (+1.5) Jun 25 $28 −$28 -100%
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European Jun 25 $35 −$35 -100%
Map Handicap: HERO.A (-1.5) vs RUSTEC (+1.5) Jun 25 $29 −$29 -100%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $171 −$171 -100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 25 $159 −$159 -100%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $39 −$39 -100%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 25 $143 −$143 -100%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+1.5) Jun 25 $193 −$193 -100%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 25 $240 −$240 -100%
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) Jun 25 $260 −$257 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 25 $292 −$292 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-6.5) vs 9z (+6.5) Jun 25 $258 −$258 -100%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 25 $675 −$341 -51%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 25 $466 −$466 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 25 $465 −$447 -96%
Map Handicap: GZ (-1.5) vs MARKandLARRY (+1.5) Jun 25 $233 −$233 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 25 $450 −$450 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 25 $632 −$632 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 25 $426 −$426 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 25 $146 −$146 -100%
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs 9INE (+1.5) Jun 25 $419 −$419 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 25 $1,125 −$1,125 -100%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 25 $317 −$298 -94%
Map Handicap: XLG (-1.5) vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (+1.5) Jun 25 $984 −$984 -100%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $151 +$89 +59%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: UCAM Esports Club (-3.5) vs MIR (+3.5) Jun 24 $204 +$296 +146%
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) Jun 24 $238 +$81 +34%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $139 +$94 +67%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $249 +$261 +105%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 24 $11 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Jun 24 $72 +$76 +105%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $73 −$9 -13%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $163 +$74 +45%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $70 −$3 -4%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick Jun 24 $210 −$70 -33%
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) Jun 23 $392 +$8 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 60¢ $202 4m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 60¢ $723 5m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 60¢ $75 10m
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America BUY NRG Academy 53¢ $6 12m
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America BUY NRG Academy 53¢ $26 14m
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America BUY NRG Academy 53¢ $26 19m
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America BUY NRG Academy 53¢ $7 20m
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY eternal premium 48¢ $8 29m
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY eternal premium 48¢ $12 29m
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY eternal premium 48¢ $16 29m
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY eternal premium 48¢ $16 29m
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY eternal premium 48¢ $5 29m
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY eternal premium 48¢ $2 29m
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY eternal premium 47¢ $43 29m
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY eternal premium 48¢ $2 29m
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY eternal premium 15¢ $17 43m
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY eternal premium 15¢ $2 44m
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY eternal premium 15¢ $1 44m
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY eternal premium 15¢ $1 44m
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY eternal premium 15¢ $1 44m
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY eternal premium 15¢ $1 44m
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY eternal premium 15¢ $1 44m
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY eternal premium 15¢ $1 44m
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY eternal premium 13¢ $6 44m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula SELL Inner Circle Esports 55¢ $4 54m
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Inner Circle Esports 56¢ $163 57m
Spain to win the second half? BUY No 51¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY eternal premium 32¢ $191 1h
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America BUY NRG Academy 53¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Playoff BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 25¢ $18 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,722.77 · official $2,722.77 (match) · 914 history records