trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +0.9% | -8.7% | 50% | 0% | -8.1% |
| ≤30d | 15 | +12.9% | +2.2% | 67% | 27% | -1.6% |
| ≤90d | 16 | +12.6% | +1.9% | 69% | 25% | -1.6% |
| all | 20 | +10.9% | +0.4% | 75% | 25% | -1.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +0.4% | 25% | -1.6% |
| 10% | -9.2% | 10% | -11.0% |
| 15% | -18.0% | 5% | -19.6% |
| 20% | -26.1% | 5% | -27.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | 83¢ | 82¢ | $109 | $108 | −$1 (-1%) |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | 82¢ | 82¢ | $55 | $55 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 59¢ | 58¢ | $39 | $38 | −$1 (-2%) |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | Yes | 38¢ | 38¢ | $30 | $29 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 91¢ | 91¢ | $20 | $20 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? | Jun 29 | $39 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats | Jun 29 | $55 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 29 | $74 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Jun 29 | $92 | +$4 | +4% |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? | Jun 19 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Jun 19 | $11 | +$2 | +19% |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 19 | $50 | −$2 | -4% |
| Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Jun 19 | $63 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? | Jun 19 | $100 | +$33 | +34% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 15? | Jun 04 | $2 | $0 | +14% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | Jun 04 | $4 | +$6 | +138% |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 04 | $1 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Jun 04 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Jun 04 | $2 | $0 | -13% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Jun 04 | $3 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in March? | May 06 | $3 | $0 | +8% |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? | Mar 29 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of January? | Mar 29 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of January? | Mar 29 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of February? | Mar 29 | $5 | +$1 | +12% |