Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:50:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9F 0x9ff6…348f sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,157 (+21%) realized +$1,087 · open +$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$392per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$75est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$802now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$2,163
other 19% +$168
world 14% −$783
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +12.2% +1.5% 45% 45% +21.6%
≤30d 11 +12.2% +1.5% 45% 45% +21.6%
≤90d 11 +12.2% +1.5% 45% 45% +21.6%
all 11 +12.2% +1.5% 45% 45% +21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.5% 45% +21.6%
10% -8.2% 45% +10.0%
15% -17.1% 45% -0.6%
20% -25.2% 45% -10.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$603 vs −$256 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$802
Realized+$1,087
Unrealized+$70
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$75
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$392
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 52¢ $732 $802 +$70 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $311 +$434 +140%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Jun 16 $510 −$80 -16%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $496 −$487 -98%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $475 +$519 +109%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $712 +$859 +121%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire Jun 16 $613 +$931 +152%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $211 +$271 +129%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $111 −$109 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $794 −$783 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $743 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $311 4h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. BUY 26¢ $226 29h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Argentina vs. Alg BUY 18¢ $205 30h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will SELL 27¢ $431 30h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $29 30h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will BUY 31¢ $510 30h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 32h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $496 32h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 100¢ $995 32h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 47¢ $475 33h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 43¢ $147 39h
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire BUY Michele Ribecai 39¢ $127 46h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 45¢ $564 46h
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire BUY Michele Ribecai 39¢ $487 47h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 43¢ $211 2d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 27¢ $111 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $794 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $801.72 · official $801.72 (match) · 22 history records