Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:01:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9F 0x9ff7…c712 other 94 markets active 2h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized −$23 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%40W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$28
14 days+$14
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 23% −$8
sports 20% −$7
politics 13% +$50
tech 11% +$76
world 8% −$1
economics 8% −$62
culture 7% −$37
crypto 6% +$16
weather 4% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +9.1% -1.3% 75% 75% +8.7%
≤30d 11 -12.2% -20.6% 55% 55% +2.2%
≤90d 35 -48.6% -53.5% 29% 29% -10.9%
all 90 -17.1% -25.0% 44% 41% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.0% 41% -10.4%
10% -32.2% 34% -19.0%
15% -38.8% 28% -26.8%
20% -44.8% 21% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses40 / 50
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)90 / 94
History coverage139d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 22¢ $35 $66 +$31 (+88%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 67¢ 77¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+15%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 32¢ 16¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $36 +$8 +22%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$6 +28%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$44 +87%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$3 -50%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 $0 -16%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont May 30 $20 +$5 +25%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 30 $40 +$11 +27%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k? May 15 $31 −$20 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 3? May 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Kanye tweet again by May 31? May 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on May 2? May 03 $10 +$7 +65%
United x American Airlines merger/acquisition announced in 2026? May 03 $3 −$3 -81%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 2+ times during the 2 Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Alien" be said at the Oscars? Apr 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Border" 7+ times during the 2026 State of the Union ad Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Too Late" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Apr 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump say "Scam" or "Hoax" during the 2026 State of the Union add Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Supreme Court" during the 2026 State of the Union addr Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "The State of the Union is strong" during the 2026 Stat Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Israel" or "Gaza" during the 2026 State of the Union a Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 50+ times during the 2026 State Apr 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will "Chalamet" be said 5+ times at the Oscars? Apr 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple? Apr 21 $20 +$13 +67%
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? Apr 21 $35 +$62 +177%
Will "Epstein" be said at the Oscars? Apr 20 $12 +$9 +72%
Will Ivan Demidov win the 2025–2026 NHL Calder Memorial Trophy? Mar 07 $10 −$6 -65%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 07 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Mar 04 $16 −$1 -7%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Feb 28 $25 −$12 -48%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $20 +$21 +107%
Will Trump say "Kennedy" or "Autism" during the 2026 State of the Unio Feb 25 $0 $0 +96%
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during the 2026 St Feb 25 $2 +$7 +357%
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during the 2026 State of the Union addr Feb 25 $5 +$8 +164%
Will Trump say "Fake News" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 25 $7 +$8 +113%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the 2026 State of the Unio Feb 25 $10 +$6 +61%
Will Trump say "Coal" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 25 $6 +$11 +182%
Will Trump say "Black" or "Hispanic" during the 2026 State of the Unio Feb 25 $10 +$9 +91%
Will Trump say "Biden" 10+ times during the 2026 State of the Union ad Feb 25 $19 +$6 +33%
Will Trump say "Kamala" or "Harris" during the 2026 State of the Union Feb 25 $25 +$7 +26%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 25 $3 −$3 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $43 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $36 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 6d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 67¢ $26 6d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 6d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $95 6d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 7d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 59¢ $15 7d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 7d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 7d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY 100 Thieves 56¢ $10 7d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? AND Will Jordan vs. Algeria BUY 5¢ $2 7d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 7d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 7d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $36 7d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 7d
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont SELL Yes 100¢ $25 28d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 28d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 29d
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 43d
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont BUY Yes 79¢ $20 44d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $40 44d
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k? BUY Yes 51¢ $31 44d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 44d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 44d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 44d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 3? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 56d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on May 2? SELL Yes 98¢ $17 56d
United x American Airlines merger/acquisition announced in 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.36 · official $82.07 (match) · 193 history records