Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:08:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9ff8…274d crypto 1352 markets active 6h ago coverage 54d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$25,779 (-37%) realized −$25,779 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate57%775W / 577L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day57.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 54d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$8,100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 269 -6.1% -15.0% 59% 34% -22.0%
≤30d 750 -10.4% -18.9% 56% 34% -18.5%
≤90d 1352 -8.6% -17.3% 57% 38% -20.3%
all 1352 -8.6% -17.3% 57% 38% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 38% -20.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.3% 24% -27.9%
15% -32.5% 17% -34.9%
20% -39.1% 12% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$36 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25,779
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses775 / 577
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1352 / 1352
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$51
Trades / day57.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1352 Trades
no open positions (95 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$11 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$10 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$31 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$27 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $64 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $36 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $32 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$5 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $12 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $16 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $16 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $11 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $11 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $9 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $14 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records