Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:35:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9F
0x9ff9…5eda
weather · 280 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$57 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$56 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$355
Realized+$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses274 / 1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)275 / 280
History coverage30d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day23.2
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 5 History 275 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$22
14 days+$53
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $173 $173 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $90 $90 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum above 1,740 on June 14, 2PM ET? Jun 14 $150 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,610 on June 14, 2PM ET? Jun 14 $150 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,730 on June 14, 2PM ET? Jun 14 $55 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,600 on June 14, 2PM ET? Jun 14 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $76 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $200 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,700 on June 14, 11AM ET? Jun 14 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 64,600 on June 14, 10AM ET? Jun 14 $137 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 14, 10AM ET? Jun 14 $204 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,680 on June 14, 10AM ET? Jun 14 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 64,800 on June 14, 10AM ET? Jun 14 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 14, 10AM ET? Jun 14 $137 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,650 on June 13, 6PM ET? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 13, 6PM ET? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 13, 6PM ET? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,720 on June 13, 6PM ET? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET Jun 13 $47 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,700 on June 13, 6PM ET? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $444 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $119 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 66,000 on June 13, 11AM ET? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,670 on June 13, 10AM ET? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 64,200 on June 13, 10AM ET? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 13, 10AM ET? Jun 13 $222 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 13, 9AM ET? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 13, 9AM ET? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,000 on June 13, 9AM ET? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,720 on June 13, 9AM ET? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,620 on June 13, 9AM ET? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,610 on June 13, 9AM ET? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $332 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $159 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $249 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $297 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $140 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 77% +$45
crypto 22% +$8
other 1% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum above 1,730 on June 14, 2PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $55 1h
Ethereum above 1,740 on June 14, 2PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $150 1h
Ethereum above 1,610 on June 14, 2PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 1h
Ethereum above 1,600 on June 14, 2PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $18 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $76 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $200 3h
Ethereum above 1,700 on June 14, 11AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $150 4h
Bitcoin above 64,600 on June 14, 10AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $137 4h
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 14, 10AM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $204 4h
Bitcoin above 64,800 on June 14, 10AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $150 4h
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 14, 10AM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $137 4h
Ethereum above 1,680 on June 14, 10AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $150 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $133 20h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $40 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $47 20h
Ethereum above 1,700 on June 13, 6PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $150 20h
Ethereum above 1,720 on June 13, 6PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $150 20h
Ethereum above 1,650 on June 13, 6PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 20h
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 13, 6PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 20h
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 13, 6PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $20 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $20 26h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $25 26h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 27h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $3 27h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $3 27h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 27h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $0 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 157 -0.4% -9.9% 99% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 275 +0.0% -9.5% 100% 1% -9.4%
≤90d 275 +0.0% -9.5% 100% 1% -9.4%
all 275 +0.0% -9.5% 100% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover23.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 1% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $354.69 · official $354.69 (match) · 965 history records