Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:30:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9F 0x9ffb…2581 other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$256 (+15%) realized +$257 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%15W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day35.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$170now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$7
sports 23% +$127
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +8.4% -1.9% 33% 33% -2.7%
≤30d 45 +8.4% -1.9% 33% 33% -2.7%
≤90d 45 +8.4% -1.9% 33% 33% -2.7%
all 45 +8.4% -1.9% 33% 33% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.9% 33% -2.7%
10% ← realistic here -11.3% 27% -12.0%
15% -19.9% 24% -20.5%
20% -27.7% 16% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +59% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$12 · ×2.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$170
Realized+$257
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses15 / 30
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions10
Markets (closed)45 / 55
History coverage2d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day35.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 30¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 15¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Luka Modrić: 1+ shots No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $5 +$13 +262%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$46 +46%
Panama vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $101 +$36 +36%
Panama vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $50 +$20 +40%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 23 $3 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 23 $3 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 23 $3 −$2 -97%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 +$51 +250%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$3 -50%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -93%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$4 -80%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $101 −$87 -86%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 23 $101 +$50 +50%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $201 +$24 +12%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $25 +$16 +64%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $1 +$27 +2600%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $111 +$63 +56%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $8 −$3 -34%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $8 +$17 +226%
France to win the second half? Jun 23 $101 +$26 +26%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $3 −$1 -46%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $100 +$18 +18%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $101 +$21 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 73¢ $101 44m
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 1h
Luka Modrić: 1+ shots BUY No 1¢ $1 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 4h
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 4h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 4h
England leading at halftime? SELL Yes 9¢ $14 4h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $101 5h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 6h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $20 6h
Portugal to win the second half? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $225 8h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $42 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 88¢ $201 8h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $25 8h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $170.35 · official $170.35 (match) · 104 history records