Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:39:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9ffc…7b90 other 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate13%14W / 90L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$287per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$15
politics 28% −$8
sports 16% +$27
economics 4% −$1
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 65 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 104 +3.1% -6.8% 13% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 8% -9.5%
10% -15.7% 8% -18.2%
15% -23.8% 7% -26.1%
20% -31.3% 6% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×6.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses14 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)104 / 104
History coverage132d
Avg bet$287
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 104 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 18 $38 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $248 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $196 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 14 $268 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 20 $660 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $196 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $274 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $206 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $231 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $274 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $223 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $232 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $245 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $296 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $775 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $223 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $241 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $269 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $203 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $201 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $992 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $209 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $944 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $294 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $239 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $256 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 07 $241 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $240 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $238 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 06 $454 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $450 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $209 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 04 $300 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 04 $298 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 03 $269 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 03 $203 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $773 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 02 $228 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 02 $224 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $525 −$1 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Apr 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 01 $463 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $682 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $44 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $44 3d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $38 3d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $38 6d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 10d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 15d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $248 25d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $248 25d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $291 28d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $291 29d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $196 30d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $196 33d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $268 38d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $268 46d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $128 62d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $88 62d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $216 63d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $196 63d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $196 63d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $274 63d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $274 63d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $206 64d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $206 64d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $289 64d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $289 64d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $231 64d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $231 64d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $202 64d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $202 64d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $274 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 329 history records