Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:00:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A0 0xa004…a04f sports 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$202 (+35%) realized +$203 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%8W / 2L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$187
other 21% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +36.2% +23.3% 80% 80% +32.8%
≤30d 10 +36.2% +23.3% 80% 80% +32.8%
≤90d 10 +36.2% +23.3% 80% 80% +32.8%
all 10 +36.2% +23.3% 80% 80% +32.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +23.3% 80% +32.8%
10% ← realistic here +11.5% 70% +20.0%
15% +0.7% 60% +8.5%
20% -9.2% 60% -2.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$23 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.39 per $1 lost it wins $6.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$203
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Felix Auger-Aliassime 56¢ 56¢ $63 $62 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 17 $74 +$49 +66%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 17 $3 −$1 -32%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $49 +$38 +78%
ITF Maanshan: Dong Ju Kim vs Moerani Bouzige Jun 17 $99 +$61 +62%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $45 −$44 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $45 +$36 +81%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) Jun 17 $39 +$6 +16%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$50 +98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $73 +$18 +24%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $43 +$30 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 56¢ $64 4m
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover SELL Carlos Sanchez Jover 99¢ $69 6m
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover SELL Carlos Sanchez Jover 99¢ $54 7m
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Carlos Sanchez Jover 59¢ $74 1h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman SELL Laslo Djere 47¢ $2 1h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 67¢ $3 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $87 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 8h
ITF Maanshan: Dong Ju Kim vs Moerani Bouzige SELL Moerani Bouzige 100¢ $100 8h
ITF Maanshan: Dong Ju Kim vs Moerani Bouzige SELL Moerani Bouzige 88¢ $60 9h
ITF Maanshan: Dong Ju Kim vs Moerani Bouzige BUY Moerani Bouzige 58¢ $99 9h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 56¢ $45 10h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 95¢ $45 10h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 92¢ $37 10h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 51¢ $45 10h
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) SELL Colorado Rockies 100¢ $45 10h
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 86¢ $39 11h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $39 11h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 99¢ $48 11h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 83¢ $15 11h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 48¢ $51 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $51 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $39 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $18 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $28 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $27 13h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres SELL Gonzalo Villanueva 100¢ $73 13h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 58¢ $43 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.44 · official $62.44 (match) · 28 history records