Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:06:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A0
0xa00c…40ad
weather · 94 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$5 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$13 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$36
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses14 / 79
Open positions1
Markets (closed)93 / 94
History coverage55d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 1 History 93 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 2? No 99¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on April 28? No 99¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on April 22? No 98¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on April 24? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 21? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on April 23? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on April 28? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on April 24? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 20°C on April 24? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 26? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 26? No 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on April 26? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 3°C on April 24? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on April 22? No 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on April 26? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 24? No 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on April 23? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 2? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on April 23? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on April 21? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on April 21? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 27? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 24? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 25? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $14 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 7? Jun 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 5? Jun 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 6? Jun 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 4? Jun 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $14 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 2? Jun 02 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 1? Jun 02 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 1? Jun 01 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ma May 31 $16 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 30? May 31 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on May 30? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on May 29? May 30 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on May 29? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 28? May 29 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 28? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 27? May 28 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on May 27? May 28 $11 $0 -0%
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12.5m? May 26 $11 $0 +3%
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $14 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on May 17? May 17 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 17? May 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bill Cassidy finish first in the first round of the Louisiana Rep May 17 $11 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on May 16? May 15 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 15? May 15 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 14? May 14 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 14? May 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 33°C on May 6? May 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 6? May 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on May 6? May 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 6? May 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 6? May 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on May 6? May 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on May 5? May 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 5? May 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 5? May 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $9 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on May 5? May 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C or higher on May 4? May 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on May 4? May 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 4? May 04 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 92% −$17
other 3% +$2
politics 2% +$2
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $12 22h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 45h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $12 45h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $13 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? SELL No 99¢ $14 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $10 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? BUY No 97¢ $14 5d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 8? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $14 6d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 7? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 7? BUY No 99¢ $13 6d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 7? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 7? BUY No 99¢ $15 7d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 6? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 6? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 6? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 5? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 5? BUY No 99¢ $10 9d
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 10d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 4? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 4? BUY No 99¢ $13 10d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 3? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 11d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 3? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 11d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 3? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-31.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.2% -9.4% 11% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 33 +0.6% -9.0% 15% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 93 -24.3% -31.5% 15% 0% -10.9%
all 93 -24.3% -31.5% 15% 0% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.5% 0% -10.9%
10% -38.1% 0% -19.4%
15% -44.1% 0% -27.2%
20% -49.5% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.86 · official $35.86 (match) · 284 history records