Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:22:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A0 0xa00e…0133 world 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate33%23W / 47L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$2
world 32% −$1
politics 12% −$12
sports 10% +$9
economics 0% −$1
tech 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 22 -1.9% -11.2% 32% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 32 +1.5% -8.1% 28% 3% -9.6%
all 70 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 6% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 4% -18.2%
15% -26.5% 4% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses23 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage472d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $155 +$1 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $77 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $72 −$2 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $45 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $221 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $116 −$3 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 31 $209 +$2 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $323 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $71 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $157 −$10 -6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $318 −$2 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $83 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $73 +$2 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 26 $73 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 22 $98 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $6 −$2 -33%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $87 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 18 $1,183 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $83 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 16 $91 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 26 $1,214 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $10 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $1,133 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $2,064 −$2 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $13 −$1 -6%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $1,148 −$11 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $14 +$12 +88%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $66 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $131 +$13 +10%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $1,024 −$3 -0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $8 +$3 +43%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Aug 10 $7 +$1 +7%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jul 03 $1 $0 -8%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 02 $8 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 01 $8 $0 -0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 26 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jun 26 $2 −$1 -35%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -88%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 26 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 22 $5 $0 -0%
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by Friday? Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $5 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $79 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $79 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $77 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $76 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $0 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $1 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $4 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $2 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $2 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $4 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $74 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $77 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 90¢ $70 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 92¢ $51 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 92¢ $21 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $45 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $45 7d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $72 7d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $71 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $41 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $41 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $72 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $72 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $72 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $72 14d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $71 15d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $71 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $72 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $73 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 243 history records