Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:02:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
A0 0xa018…3d31 other 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 599d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$902 (+6%) realized +$943 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate46%19W / 22L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$264now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$408
7 days+$724
14 days+$466
30 days+$814
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% +$3,111
world 21% −$1,398
crypto 14% −$1,920
other 14% +$698
finance 9% −$161
sports 7% +$795
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +71.1% +54.8% 62% 56% +81.2%
≤30d 27 +37.5% +24.4% 48% 44% +38.0%
≤90d 31 +33.3% +20.6% 52% 42% +11.4%
all 41 +15.8% +4.8% 46% 39% +4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.8% 39% +4.3%
10% -5.3% 39% -5.7%
15% -14.4% 39% -14.8%
20% -22.8% 34% -23.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +0% → late +30% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$300 vs −$206 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

599d coverage
Net worth$264
Realized+$943
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses19 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions8
Markets (closed)41 / 71
History coverage599d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 34¢ $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-24%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $30 $15 −$15 (-50%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-31%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 +$60 +291%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $35 +$142 +401%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $101 +$68 +67%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $101 +$77 +76%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $102 +$161 +158%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $103 +$8 +8%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 3 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Ghana to score first vs. England? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? AND Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verd Jun 22 $29 +$158 +549%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $18 +$11 +61%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$166 +325%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $202 +$84 +42%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Jun 11 $102 +$314 +307%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 29 $640 −$188 -29%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 07 $648 +$26 +4%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $468 +$189 +40%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026? Mar 30 $445 +$23 +5%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Mar 01 $42 −$42 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Mar 01 $680 −$680 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 01 $100 +$194 +194%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 27 $1,054 −$854 -81%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 19 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 15 $129 −$129 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? Nov 21 $1,599 −$1,599 -100%
Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? Nov 21 $260 −$260 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? Nov 21 $1,000 +$538 +54%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $5,010 +$3,371 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-2 BUY 2¢ $20 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY 11¢ $30 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? A BUY 2¢ $12 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND BUY 1¢ $10 25h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY 2¢ $10 25h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 27h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $178 27h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $101 30h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $101 30h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 19¢ $32 30h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? AND Will South Africa win on 20 BUY 4¢ $21 47h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will South Africa vs. Korea Republi BUY 15¢ $21 47h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a d BUY 2¢ $10 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY 15¢ $51 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 58¢ $101 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $111 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Ghana? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: England 1 - 3 Ghana? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Ghana? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3d
Ghana to score first vs. England? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3d
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score AND England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY 29¢ $51 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 26¢ $82 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score AND Will Argentina vs. Aust BUY 18¢ $51 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 64¢ $51 4d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? AND Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verd BUY 15¢ $29 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $263.64 · official $308.46 · 143 history records